The following is a lightly edited transcript of the May 7 episode of The Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.
Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.
Donald Trump just got hit by some really terrible inflation numbers, and boy is he in a rage about it. He erupted at a reporter for asking a reasonable question about prices, seethed at another reporter over his ballroom, and made an admission about ordinary Americans’ economic pain that was incredibly self-damaging. Yet we’re in a split-screen moment. Trump’s inability to resolve the Iran fiasco means his travails with inflation will likely keep getting worse. But we’re also seeing GOP chances in the midterms rebound significantly due to redistricting. So we’re working through all of this with Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, who’s been arguing for months that Trump’s political problems on the economy predate the Iran war and won’t be fixed if the war ends. Simon, always good to have you on.
Simon Rosenberg: Greg, it’s always great to be with you.
Sargent: So we just learned that consumer prices spiked big time last month, much of it driven by energy prices rising due to Trump’s war. The consumer price index is up 3.8 percent in April relative to last year. That’s up from 2.4 percent before the war. But even if you take out volatile food and energy costs, prices still rose by the same amount. Simon, your quick reaction to all that news?
Rosenberg: Yeah. I mean, look, Trump’s tariffs and his broader economic strategy had already caused the economy to slow, job growth to slow, and inflation to reignite prior to the war. And the more data that we’ve gotten, the more it’s clear he took an extraordinary risk by engaging in this war, given that things were already heading in the wrong direction in the economy, which we also saw in his polling data.
And now we’ve had a couple months of post-war data and Trump’s polling numbers are collapsing even further. His economic ratings are going down. We have the lowest consumer confidence recorded in 65 years. And the inflation numbers are ugly. And so it’s pushing him and his party further and further away from the electorate.
Sargent: Absolutely. And Trump knows he’s in trouble on all this. He was asked about all of it by a reporter and he lost it. Listen.
Reporter (voiceover): Mr. President, you promised to bring inflation down. It’s now at its highest level in three years. Are your policies not working? What’s happening?
Donald Trump (voiceover): My policies are working incredibly. If you go back to just before the war, for the last three months, inflation was at 1.7 percent. Now, we had a choice. Let these lunatics have a nuclear weapon. If you want to do that, then you’re a stupid person. And you happen to be. I mean, I know you very well.
Sargent: Simon, I was unable to determine who this, quote-unquote, stupid reporter is. But what’s funny here is his anger over being asked whether his policies are to blame. You could not ask for a clearer example of a president actually being to blame for economic conditions. It’s never this clear—tariffs, immigration, the war. The connection is absolutely inarguable. Your thoughts on that?
Rosenberg: Costs are up because of him. And I think the reason this has hurt him so much in the polls is that he promised otherwise. He promised to lower everybody’s prices and costs and to make lives better for everybody. And he’s done the exact opposite. And I think that’s part of the reason that he and his party are paying such a heavy price right now in polling.
In economic terms, he’s done all these things, including cutting healthcare, that have hurt working people. And he gave himself a massive tax cut. And if you look at the tariffs, the tariffs are clearly part of a strategy to shift the tax burden in the United States from wealthy people to working people. And so it’s literally the case that he’s done a series of things that have done enormous harm to working people, farmers, small business people—and done a whole series of things to enrich himself and other wealthy people in America. It’s about as clear-cut as you can get, Greg.
Sargent: Well, look, you’ve been a Democratic strategist for a long time, and for Democratic strategists like yourself, one of the things about Trump has always been that he’s really hard to hit on the economy. He’s a billionaire, but he just comes across to a whole lot of people out there—especially low-information voters—as some combination of an economic populist [and] as someone who’s not like other Republicans on the economy. He very consciously distanced himself from other Republicans on the economy in 2016, sort of did the same again in 2024.
That plus the kind of deep cultural penetration of the image of Trump as this can-do guy who snaps his fingers and makes things happen—he’s never been easily pilloried as a plutocrat. But now it sort of seems like precisely because of that, we all have a tough time getting our heads around the idea that maybe Donald Trump is perceived as out of touch on the economy. And he is perceived that way.
Rosenberg: Yeah. I mean, and I think your analysis is correct. In the 2020 election, despite the fact the economy was in the toilet when Trump ran for reelection, Trump beat Biden with voters who said the economy was the number one issue by 81 to 18. And he also beat Biden by more than 10 points on the question of who would be better for the economy. Biden won the election because of COVID, but even though he had crashed the economy, his economic numbers stayed unbelievably high in the 2020 election. So yes, you’re right.
And I think in 2024, part of what gave that extra veneer of this idea that if you want to make more money, you go with Trump—which I think was very important, particularly in the Hispanic community and with younger voters who had just been through COVID and were worried about their economic lives—he also had Elon Musk and the tech bros right there to give that additional imprimatur of the people who were creating wealth and prosperity in America who were now on his side. And it was a very powerful kind of branding thing that he did. It’s all unraveled now.
And you’re seeing this gradually. And what happened is, about a month or six weeks ago, you started seeing polling where Democrats were more trusted on the economy, more trusted on inflation, on fighting for working people. And now in CNN, Democrats had significant leads in all those measures, as opposed to just being up by a couple of points.
I don’t know the trajectory of this, but I think we cannot underestimate the importance of what’s happening with inflation right now. It is spiking at extraordinary levels. And the reason why it’s breaking into Republican Party circles is that gas prices really matter for Republican voters, given that they live in more rural areas, they drive bigger cars. And so now this is crashing deeply into the MAGA world and it’s breaking through the bubble. And that’s why you’re seeing his numbers come down even further.
Sargent: I want to get to the question of Democrats and the economy in a bit, but first let’s listen to more of Trump. A reporter asked him to what degree Americans’ financial situation shapes his thinking about Iran. Listen.
Reporter (voiceover): When your negotiating with Iran, Mr. President—to what extent are Americans’ financial situations motivating you to make a deal?
Donald Trump (voiceover): Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran—they can’t have a nuclear weapon. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing. We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all.
Sargent: This is going to end up in a lot of Democratic ads. Note the claim that he doesn’t think about Americans’ financial situation even a little bit. Simon, this is somebody who is absolutely convinced that he and Republicans are politically untouchable on the economy, someone who thinks his ability to control what Americans think of him and the GOP is absolute. And I think there’s a real serious hubris at work here, kind of rooted in what we were just talking about, which is that for years, for cycle after cycle, he was untouchable on the economy—and he still thinks he is, right?
Rosenberg: Well, and they also have said that they think the war is just going to end magically, right? Just the way that COVID ended. He kept saying COVID is just going to end one day. The war is just going to end and things are going to snap back to the way they were. And I think that is the widespread belief in the Republican Party now, that this is a temporary blip. And yet what we’re seeing in the inflation data in this report is that—remember, energy inflation is different than food inflation or different than other inflation because it affects anything that is transported. That also goes up in price.
So it’s like a multiplier through the economy. It’s not just a singular pillar of inflation. And you’re starting to see that impact, for example, on food prices. Trump and the Republicans I think are in a place of extraordinary denial and magical thinking about the depth of the hole that he’s digging for them right now because of the war.
Sargent: Well, not all the data shows that unfortunately, and I want to get to that. We have this new CNN poll, which does contain brutal news for Trump and Republicans. Trump’s approval on the economy is down to 30 percent among Americans—the lowest ever from either Trump term. Seventy percent disapprove. Among independents, it’s 21 percent approve to 79 percent disapprove—that’s just extraordinary.
Meanwhile, nearly two thirds of Americans say Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in our country. Abysmal. And yet the CNN poll has the generic House ballot matchup at Democrats up only three points. Simon, that could be wrong—the polling averages have Democrats leading by five or six points. But still, how do you square those findings? Where are you on the claim that we keep hearing, that Democrats are underperforming in the generic ballot given Trump’s extraordinary unpopularity?
Rosenberg: I think the generic ballot has been all over the place. I mean, to be fair, there were three polls taken in the last few weeks that had the generic ballot up high single digits and double digits for the Democrats. It’s been more choppy and bouncy than I remember in recent election cycles. But certainly, look, in a potentially wave election—which we may be in—there are two different dynamics, right?
You can win an election just on voters being sick of the party in power and have the election that you want to have. And we’ve been having test cases around the election in all these special elections and other elections over the last 16 months. And things have been going very well for Democrats.
But obviously it would be better if we also had a short, clear agenda about what we would do when we got back into power. And I think that agenda is available to us. Things like we would get rid of the tariffs, which would lower your prices, right? We would restore some of the healthcare cuts so you can afford healthcare again. These are not complicated things that we can run on that are necessary things for us to do.
And my hope is that House and Senate Democrats come together around a simple agenda of things that we’ll do when we get back into power. As we did, for example, in the 2006 midterm—we had “Six for ‘06,” which was the plan that Pelosi put out, the six things that Democrats committed to do. There are different schools of thought in the family about this, but I’m in the camp that I think it would be smart for us to put out a simple, clear agenda about how we’re going to make people’s lives better and then fight like hell when we’re empowered to implement it.
Sargent: You just brought up the tariffs and Democrats and I want to home in on that for a second. This is something you’ve talked about as well. Obviously healthcare—Democrats feel really comfortable running on. We almost joke about it all the time at this point. But tariffs, less so. You do see some Democrats attack the tariffs and Democrats have been pretty good in some of these congressional votes. And yet you don’t hear that many Democratic candidates in tough races—tough House districts or tough states—really going hard at the tariffs, which is just mystifying to me.
Here’s my fear about that, Simon. I fear that a lot of these Democrats see these tariffs as somehow economic populist and therefore a little bit untouchable—that these Democrats fear that Trump is speaking to an authentic sentiment in the electorate that’s pro-tariff and anti-alliances and anti-globalization and anti-trade. And I think Democrats have to get over that. The tariffs are a fucking disaster. They caused the inflation and Democrats shouldn’t be afraid of saying that. Your thoughts on that? Am I right or wrong?
Rosenberg: You know, it’s like most times when I join you—you raise interesting and complicated things. I do think I’ve been a little surprised that Democrats have put a lot more energy into the healthcare discussion than tariffs and inflation, particularly given what Trump promised, and particularly given that we know that inflation hurt Biden in 2024.
But I will say that I’ve interviewed most of the battleground-state House and Senate candidates in the last couple of months. And the first thing that comes out of their mouths is tariffs and higher prices. And I want to just make sure your listeners are aware that in these races, here’s what they’re working with as candidates.
All these incumbent Republicans voted for the tariffs and higher prices and challenges for small businesses and farmers. They voted for the war, which further increased gas prices and other prices. They voted for the healthcare cuts—which is, every day that we get closer to the election, those cuts are going to be more biting in every one of these districts. They all voted to fund ICE at unprecedented levels without any reforms. And they voted to cut taxes on the wealthiest people while raising them for middle-class people.
I’ve been doing this a long time—34 years full-time—and I don’t know that we’ve ever had so much to work with. And because, to your point, Greg, I don’t know that we’ve ever seen a party so avowedly plutocratic and unconcerned with the welfare of regular people as we’re seeing right now in Trump’s second term.
Sargent: Well, I’m really heartened to think that you think some of these Democrats in tough races are engaging on the tariffs. You mentioned a little bit earlier that Democrats are leading on the economy in polls. I agree that that’s an important thing—that it’s actually something of a milestone to have Democrats favored or more trusted on the economy than Republicans. But—and I want to ask you about this—I think the data is a little bit less conclusive than I’d like it to be. You sometimes see polls with Republicans up.
And for that to be happening at a moment like this—when again, the case is so clear that Trump’s policies are to blame for economic conditions being so abysmal—for that to happen amid something like that is a little disturbing to me. And I wonder candidly, Simon, how much do you worry about the state of the Democratic brand right now? Obviously it’s not where it needs to be. Let’s face it. So where are you on all that?
Rosenberg: Yeah, no, I agree. Let me make three points about what I think is going to happen with the brand. One is I think the further we get away from the election, the sort of ugly hangover from what happened in 2024 will be more in the rearview mirror and it’ll be less of a drag on us. Second is that we’re not running as a party brand. We’re running candidates. And when candidates actually are running against Republican candidates, we’ve been way outperforming the current fundamentals of the election.
And that’s because when it’s an actual Democrat and an actual Republican and not the abstract brand, we’re doing much better. You also see that in a lot of the House polling—when you actually name the House candidate, our numbers get a little bit better. And then the third thing is, yes, I think it would be better for us as a national party to have a simple agenda. But what’s going to happen is that the candidates in these races are going to be running on a simple agenda, whatever it is, whether the national party does or not.
Sargent: Here’s more of Trump. Here he starts talking about his ballroom being under budget. And then a reporter says the costs have doubled. Listen to what happens next.
Donald Trump (voiceover): We’re right now on budget, under budget, and ahead of schedule. You doubled the size of it, you dumb person. You are not a smart person.
Sargent: Simon, just to close this out, one thing I don’t quite get is why isn’t there more discussion of what a political disaster the ballroom is for Trump and Republicans? We just learned that vulnerable Republicans don’t even want to vote for the thing, which is pretty staggering.
It’s not often that Republicans break from Trump. And here, on something like the ballroom, even though there was an alleged assassination attempt and even though the entire right wing used that assassination attempt as propaganda for the ballroom—none of it worked, and Republicans are running from the project. That’s a political catastrophe for them, though.
Rosenberg: Look, I think Trump goes to China in a few days and he’s going to go there in a very weakened position. His tariffs—I mean, the economy, the data on the economy is terrible. His economic program clearly isn’t working. His war has failed. His tariffs, which were a central bludgeon he was using against the Chinese, were just declared illegal for the second time.
He’s falling asleep regularly, looking like an old man who’s ready to move on and do something else. Once it becomes clear and understood by all that this war was a failure—as opposed to, like, people, you know—and it did enormous harm to our economy and to our standing in the world, it’s going to further drive Trump away from the American people.
So listen, I am optimistic by nature. I think if you’ve been in politics for a long time, you have to constantly—you have to believe that you can make things better, right? That you can improve people’s lives, that you can improve the standing of your party. And I think that right now, the stench of failure around Trump is actually getting far more powerful than any sense that they’re in any kind of recovery right now. And if we put our heads down, I think we can have the election that we all want to have.
Sargent: Simon, great to talk to you as always.
Rosenberg: Greg, great to be with you. Thanks for your incredible hard work. The hardest-working man in show business. I’ve been calling you that for years.
Sargent: I wish I could say that that isn’t true, Simon. Thanks for coming on.
Rosenberg: Take care. Thanks, everybody.