The following is a lightly edited transcript of the October 1 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.
Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.
This week brings two related developments. Donald Trump just hit another record low in the polls, and Donald Trump is using taxpayer money to fund propaganda ads in the midterms that are all about himself. He doesn’t seem to see the disconnect with that. The ad scheme is corrupt and probably illegal, and an official just leaked something damning: the corruption of the scheme is in part the point, because it draws media attention to the ads, which amplifies them. We think that says a lot about how Trumpian and autocratic propaganda really work.
So we’re talking to David Corn, who has a good piece for The New Republic exploring how Trumpian disinformation really functions. He’s author of How Russia Won, a book about Trump, Russia, and America. David, good to have you on.
David Corn: Great to be on The Blast.
Sargent: Let’s start with the polling. Quinnipiac has a new survey finding that Trump’s approval is down at 34 percent, and he’s down to 31 percent on the economy, which is an all-time low for both terms in Quinnipiac polling. Democrats are leading in the generic House ballot matchup by 51 to 39. That’s 12 points.
David, I don’t think it’s that high, but we’re getting there. Nate Silver’s average has it at nearly 10 points now, the generic ballot average. All indications are, one, Trump continues to drop, and two, the Dem lead continues to expand. Is that too optimistic? Your thoughts?
Corn: Well, I mean, he’s at lower numbers than Jimmy Carter, right? And they keep dropping. Yeah, it’s showing us kind of where his floor or basement is. And I always thought it was around 30 points. One or two outlying polls have him down as low as 29, but the average is still low-to-mid thirties.
So I think there’s still a little bit further for him to drop. About 30 percent of people look at him as an information source and thus believe what he says. And he’s basically losing almost everybody up to that, because people can see what’s happening.
In my book, and in the piece I have in The New Republic, I write about how he won the messaging war on Russia by saying over and over again it was a hoax, it was a witch hunt, it was a deep state conspiracy, Russia, Russia, Russia—and the Democrats, a lot of the media, gave up. That’s a big part of my book.
But people are seeing the gas prices every day. They see the war is not over. They see what the trade policy did in terms of the economy. They see innocent, law-abiding residents being brutally apprehended. They see fellow Americans being shot. So in the face of all this, Trump’s propaganda—which is endemic to all authoritarians—is not getting traction. And that’s a key point.
Sargent: It really is. And Trump is now using taxpayer money to fund the propaganda. He’s now run three ads that claim to be funded by the U.S. government, in the ads themselves. One shows Trump saying he’s waging a final battle against the Marxists and the globalists. A second shows something similar, with Trump vowing that America will never go communist. A third shows Trump’s July 4 speech at Mount Rushmore.
David, where are these running? And can you explain why this is so corrupt?
Corn: Well, they’re running a lot on football games. You know, they’re trying to reach football watchers, which tells you that they think they’re losing middle America. I have a friend who works for us at Mother Jones, a colleague, who was rained in this last weekend and watched, like, 12 hours of football. And he said the ads were up again and again. College games, pro games, different channels. They’re just pouring millions of dollars.
And I think it’s, you know—while things look good for the Democrats, you have to remember that the Republicans have, at this point, a $222 million cash advantage in terms of what they’re putting out in ads over the Democrats. They’re going to spend close to a billion dollars. Democrats spending a lot, Republicans spending a lot more.
But to use taxpayer money to finance an ad like this is blatantly illegal and criminal. You can put up public service ads. Kids, stay away from drugs. Don’t drive after drinking. We’ve seen this all the time, U.S. government agencies putting up public service announcements. And that’s what they’re calling these ads.
But these ads are political and partisan ads. It’s Trump rallying in a demagogic, authoritarian, autocratic way against his opponents. And so you can’t do that. But we know his Justice Department is not going to do anything about it.
Sargent: It’s worth pointing out as well that the ads, though they don’t mention the midterms, they actually do amplify the Trump and GOP message, which is that if you elect Democrats, the country will slide into leftist pandemonium. I mean, that is their message in essence, and that is what Trump is saying.
There’s an autocratic quality to these ads as well. They really have the feeling of totalitarian propaganda. You know this topic well. Can you talk about that dimension of it?
Corn: Yeah, I mean, they basically are part of the cult of personality. They’re very Stalinistic. If you—I’m not advising you to watch these ads, but if you see them, they show Trump grimacing, in black and white, looking, you know, trying to look fierce and strong. But it’s all about him.
And this is where this may indeed backfire on him. Because, as we started talking about, his numbers are incredibly low. His actions are making Republicans incredibly unpopular. He’s dragging down the ticket. Yet you have the chairman of the RNC, Joe Gruters, saying a couple of days ago, we are going to put Trump front and center in this campaign. To which Democrats can only say, thank you very much.
Almost any other president in the midterms tries to find a way to help the party. Now, sometimes that means not campaigning with certain candidates in certain states and certain districts, but it’s also like, what bill can I sign? What executive order can I put out? Where can I campaign? How can I give you money so you can use it the best way possible for your campaign? Trump is doing none of that.
Sargent: So Axios reports, meanwhile, that Trump is planning to ramp up these ads, and one administration official leaked something remarkable. The official told Axios that they like the media attention to the ads because it amplifies them for free. This official said this: “When CNN takes a segment on it, they play the entire thing and it’s great.”
David, I don’t think we should gloss over what that really means. This official is admitting straight out that the corruption is part of the point here, right? CNN does a segment on these ads because they’re so corrupt. And they like that, because it gets them free airtime for the ads. The level of contempt they have for, I guess you and me, like, we the people, is just incredible, isn’t it?
Corn: Or for the rule of law. I mean, there’s no question that these ads are illegal. They know that, but they also know no one’s going to come after Trump for this. And the Supreme Court has given him immunity on criminal activity that is pursuant to his job. So he can argue that this is pursuant to his official responsibilities.
The thing that’s kind of bizarre here is that I think they’re in a drink-the-Kool-Aid mode—I’m talking about Trump and his inner circle. As his numbers are falling, as we just talked about, you don’t want to make him center stage.
Yes, when you do propaganda and you do disinformation—as I describe a lot about what Russia’s doing in the book, or whether it’s, you know, Americans—one principle is you want people to write about it. You want people to get upset about it online and write about it. You want media to cover it and to show it.
This is not a new piece of the playbook. Campaigns for decades have done what they consider to be outrageous ads, because they’re going to get what they call free media, media they don’t have to pay for. People amplify it, we’ll talk about it and play the ad, show the ad.
But again, showing more Donald Trump does not seem to be helping. People are pissed off at Donald Trump. Independents are against him. I don’t know, the last poll I saw was, like, close to 70-30. He’s bottoming out.
Sargent: In fact, David, it’s even worse with independents. The Quinnipiac poll has Donald Trump at 25 percent approval with independents and 69 percent disapprove. And get this: on the economy, independents, 23 percent approve. I want to go back to something you said in this context, about the RNC chair who said we’re going to put Trump front and center, et cetera, et cetera.
At this point, their best hope is that they can generate very big turnout among his core supporters. I don’t think that’s going to happen for a bunch of reasons, but they seem to think that that’s their best hope. And so when the RNC chair says, look, we’re going to put you out everywhere, that’s what they’re talking about. When they run ads to football audiences, that’s what they’re trying to do. But the problem for them is the 25 percent approval with independents. The more they show him, the more they lose the middle. It’s a real—they’re in a very serious trap here.
Corn: They’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t. And you know, you know this, Greg: getting turnout in midterm elections is always hard.
Sargent: Yeah, it’s just—people for the president’s party.
Corn: For the president’s party, yeah. But even sometimes for the opposing party. But people just are less engaged. But the side that is more upset or engaged tends to do better, and that’s usually, in a midterm election, the opposition party. So this would be the Democrats. Democrats are highly, highly, highly motivated. They are not disappointed by Trump—they come into this being opposed to Trump. Independents a lot of who voted for him have flipped, and getting them out for the Democrats is the key to victory as well.
And so Trump is left with only trying to get record numbers of Republican voters who are still with him, you know, and hoping that the Democrats don’t do as well with independents and even their own voters as you would expect. That is an incredibly hard thing to envision happening.
Sargent: Well, I want to go back to the Quinnipiac poll for one second. On international conflicts, Democrats are trusted by 48 percent versus 40 percent for the Republican Party. On the economy, it’s 48 percent for Democrats, 42 percent for the Republican Party. On immigration, it’s 47 percent for the Democratic Party, 44 percent for Republicans.
So national security and foreign policy, the economy, immigration—all areas that traditionally are Republican strengths, Democrats lead on all of them. Trump did that whole thing. He absolutely fucked the Republican Party in every which way. And numbers like that are just really, really, really shocking.
Corn: Nothing that he is selling are American voters buying, except his own base. I mean, because you just went down—what are the big things he’s done? Mass deportation crusades, tariffs, you know, and starting a war in Iran, and the illegal actions in the Caribbean, attacking and killing people, and the Venezuela mini war, whatever you want to call it. Everything that is his signature accomplishment that he praises, they are not accepting.
The stuff that’s happened in the last year and a half in his second presidency is so apparent, it’s so in everybody’s face. You can’t deny it. He says we’re living in a golden age. Who believes that, other than people who are in his cult who believe everything he says? No one believes that. No one believes the war in Iran was a smart idea, or that it’s over, except his own people. So he is left with nothing to offer. And he can, you know, keep trying.
But I think all that stuff is baked in, which is why I fear—I’m not obsessive or paranoid about it—that as we get closer, he’s going to try some more extreme measures to fuck with the election in some ways. He’s an odd, psychotic person. And at some times he looks resigned, right?
Like, it’s not up to me what happens in the midterms. And other times everything is about him. And so if he feels he’s in a corner, and he’s going to lose and maybe be impeached again—who knows how he will lash out in the final weeks of this campaign, or after the election when votes still have to be counted and certified?
Sargent: There certainly is a lot to fear there. Democrats, as far as I can tell, know this and are going to be super vigilant about it. Let’s just close on some audio of Donald Trump. Here he’s talking about the midterm elections. Listen to this.
Donald Trump (voiceover): We have to turn this around. For some reason, presidents, Democrat or Republican—they just, they don’t win the midterms. I don’t know why. There’s a deep psychological impact when you—for some reason. But we should—I mean, our numbers are through the roof. We’ve never—the best numbers in the history of our country. We should win. So we have to get out. The main thing I think… maybe they get complacent.
Sargent: So there you have Donald Trump acknowledging the way midterm dynamics work—they usually do favor the out party—but he’s simply incapable of ascribing any blame of any kind to himself for any of it.
And you can see how he can then go out and support, or call for, the use of himself in as much propaganda as possible, and promise to be on the trail in every Republican state or district where he can possibly get to. I just—you know, it’s just so extraordinary to watch this party have to tiptoe around this madman. It’s just amazing stuff.
Corn: Yeah. Well, it’s quite clear that this is how he sees the world. If I win, it’s me. If I lose, it’s you. So here he is already trying to blame other forces. And he’s right, you’re right, this is the dynamic. It’s always an uphill climb for the president in a midterm election against the out party.
But nevertheless, you know, he seems here to be setting the groundwork to say, see, it has nothing to do with me, it’s all everybody else—while at the same time trying to make it all about him. And when he spoke at the midterm convention in Dallas, which was a week or two back, he actually told the crowd, do everything you can, even if you have to cheat. And they cheat. So he was then setting up perhaps this framework, or this narrative, that the election, if he loses, is because of cheating.
So he’s not a consistent, steady person. So he’s throwing a lot of different things out. Poor guy. He probably can’t process all this rationally and clearly. So whatever is in his head at a given moment is what he spurts out. But that’s what’s always made him dangerous. And that’s what makes the coming elections—this period and the post period—a time of potential crisis.
Sargent: Well, look, I think we’ll all feel a whole lot better if we can get past these midterms with a win, and with them being certified. And I think people should just keep their heads in this game, because it’s going to get pretty nasty. But I think we can get there, David. I really do.
Corn: Yeah, I mean, I agree. I think he’s tried a lot of ways to mess with the election. You know, the courts have basically said no on the mail-in ballot stuff, which is the most consequential. I mean, he did what he could with gerrymandering, and the courts got rid of the Voting Rights Act so they could do racist gerrymandering.
So he’s done a lot to tilt the playing field in his favor. But a lot of the things he’s tried recently have not worked. And so if, you know, secretaries of state, people locally, all sort of follow the rules in general, we probably can get through this.
But 2020 showed us how fragile our democracy could be. He came very close to overturning that election and, you know, staying in power even though he lost. So that’s why vigilance, keep the head in the game, as you suggest, is important here. Because with Donald Trump, it’s not about democracy, it’s about him. And he’s a dangerous man.
Sargent: The end just might be in sight, David. Folks, David Corn’s new book is called How Russia Won. David, a pleasure to have you on. Thanks so much.
Corn: Thank you, Greg.