More evidence of an elite vs. non-elite Obama gap: The Hill reports that Obama was a flop with the International Association of Fire Fighters, an influential (and symbolically ultra-valuable) Democratic union. Obama was "somber," and "just didn't fire them up," according to the union's president. They preferred Hillary, and, well, just about every one else. (Especially Dodd and Biden.) P.S. I've got nothing against Obama! He offers lots of promise. But I still suspect Alex Beam's BradleyDeanBabbittTsongas theory may be right. P.P.S. Reader CS complains that I've spotlighted some recent polls that are unfavorable for Obama while overlooking other, better numbers. In New Hampshire, for instance, a RealClearPolitics average of several polls puts Hillary Clinton up by 10 points (as compared to the 21-point ARG lead I flagged yesterday). Duly noted. Moreover, Ambinder reports Obama may be about to launch his first big ad blitz, which could shake the numbers up. Bonus pro-Obama balance: Ambinder also notes that "Obama's team was cheered by a recent Wall Street Journal poll question which suggested that of those Democrats paying close attention to the primary horse race, Obama had the most support." Finally: Silly me, I forgot about Noam's good bit of skepticism about Obamamania, written shortly after his fire fighters speech. (The speech was in March. Today's news is a susbequent survey of union members.) --Michael Crowley