The Bush administration has made numerous erroneous judgements -- actually,
devastating judgements -- in the matter of international security. The
Democrats have made much of some of these, about Iraq, in
particular. Curiously, however, but actually predictably, they have
largely ignored the National Intelligence Estimate of December 3, 2007
which absolved Iran of attempting to produce nuclear weapons. In fact, the
Democrats more or less endorsed the N.I.E. because it cut George Bush off
at the shins. After all, Bush had been targeting the Ahmanidejad regime
precisely because of its atomic adventurism. And here came his spooks and
their evaluators and said, "We judge with high confidence that in fall
2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." Basta!

It is true, to be sure, that Bush tried to retrieve some of the initiative
against Iran and what he still maintained that Tehran has nuclear ambitions.
But his authority had been compromised. It wasn't until
Mike McConnell -- that is, the director of national intelligence -- undercut
the findings over which he himself had presided that the Estimate came
under both serious public and secret scrutiny. About a week ago, McConnell
said very clearly that Iranians do intend to have a nuclear weapon. Again,
this was nothing the Democrats were inclined to ponder.

The alarums over the N.I.E. were greatest among the European powers and at
(what was a really big surprise, at least to me) the International Atomic
Energy Agency. As the headline, "Vienna Meeting on Arms Data Reignites
Iran Nuclear Debate," to a detailed and scrupulous article (by William J.
Broad and David Sanger) in Monday's Times indicates, I.A.E.A.
investigators are not sure at all that Iran had cut off its nuclear
military aspirations.

Ironically, it is France that has taken the lead in the Security Council to
strengthen the sanctions resolution against Iran which, if passed on
Monday, will be as effective as the previous namby-pamby U.N. initiatives
to curb Tehran's appetite for an atomic warfare capacity. This is serious
stuff, and no one and no presidential candidate should be allowed to wiggle
out of this one.