After Party

On the first weekend in more than 40 years that Joe Lieberman did not find himself comfortably ensconced in the bosom of the Connecticut Democratic Party, he celebrated. The occasion wasn't his estrangement from Nutmeg State Democrats, which stemmed from his decision to run as an independent following his defeat by Ned Lamont in the party primary five days earlier. Rather, it was his daughter Rebecca's wedding in Manhattan.The wedding was a fitting symbol of the bad political judgment that led to Lieberman's primary defeat. The blessed event was originally scheduled for the previous weekend, two days before the primary--as if it never occurred to anyone in the Lieberman camp that the senator might draw a serious primary challenger and thus be busy campaigning that Sunday. Once Lamont emerged as that serious challenger, the wedding was moved to the weekend after the primary- -as if it never occurred to anyone in the Lieberman camp that the senator might actually lose, casting a bit of a pall over the nuptials. As it turned out, Lieberman had some cause for celebration despite his primary loss. Odd though it may seem, the last week had in some ways been the best seven days of Lieberman's campaign. The stretch began the previous Sunday night, when Lieberman delivered the speech his campaign advisers had been urging him to make for months--criticizing President Bush for his handling of the war in Iraq and attesting to the "heavy responsibility'' Lieberman felt, as a supporter of the war, to end it quickly. Two days later, on Election Day, Lieberman managed to exceed expectations, losing to Lamont by 4 percentage points when polls had shown him trailing by as much as 13 points five days earlier. That night, while conceding defeat, Lieberman gave a rousing address reiterating his intention to run as an "independent Democrat" and pledging himself to "a new politics of unity and purpose"; Lamont, meanwhile, gave a clunker of a victory speech that was made worse by the visual of Al Sharpton standing directly behind him. The next day, Lieberman, not Lamont, was the featured guest on the network morning shows. And, on Thursday, when Lamont was taking a post-primary rest at his Maine vacation home, Lieberman was stumping in Waterbury and dominating Connecticut news coverage. "It was critical for there not to be a vacuum," explains a Lieberman adviser. "Instead, he came out and very confidently and strongly explained his reasons for going on." Confirmation of that view seemed to come on Saturday, courtesy of the first post-primary Connecticut Senate poll: In a three-way general election race, it showed Lieberman holding a 46 to 41 percent lead over Lamont (with the Republican candidate Alan Schlesinger snagging an irrelevant 6 percent). Lieberman's handling of his historic defeat has for now quieted the talk-- which was rampant in the days leading up to the primary--that he would have to abandon his independent bid. And, in that respect, his independent candidacy has cleared its first hurdle. As one Democratic strategist who works for a 2008 presidential hopeful puts it, "If the bottom doesn't fall out in the first ten days, he's obviously got a shot. That was obviously the question: Having lost, having become a pariah in his own party, is he DOA? But it looks like he's got a pulse." Which leads to the next obvious question: How strong a pulse is it? The most basic challenge currently confronting Lieberman's campaign is manpower--because, at the moment, it doesn't have much. In the wake of his primary defeat, Lieberman fired almost all of his senior campaign staff. The move obviously reflected the candidate's displeasure with the way his campaign had been conducted; but it also spared Lieberman the humiliation of having much of his staff quit on him--which almost certainly would have happened, given the fact that many of them could not afford to be associated with a campaign that is now trying to defeat the rightful Democratic nominee. Call it the "Scarlet J"--the sense among many Democratic political professionals that working for Independent Joe could be career suicide. That sense, of course, will complicate Lieberman's efforts to field a new campaign team--including the crucial hires of a pollster and a media firm. "The complaint against Lieberman during the primary was that he surrounded himself with a group of campaign staff who were neophytes and weren't up to the task," says one former Lieberman adviser. "But now he has a new problem: He recognizes the task before him. The question is whether he can attract the staff necessary to meet that challenge." So far, it appears to be a mixed bag. His new communications director, Dan Gerstein--who worked in Lieberman's Senate office and on his ill-fated presidential campaign before starting his own consulting business--has drawn largely enthusiastic reviews from Lieberman supporters, who believe he brings an aggressive and pugilistic style that was sorely missing from Lieberman's primary campaign. Under Gerstein, the Lieberman campaign's communications shop-- which seemed to wither under the fusillade of attacks from liberal bloggers during the primary--will likely give as good as it gets. But new campaign manager Sherry Brown--Lieberman's longtime state director--is a controversial and unpopular figure in Lieberman-land, where some specifically blame her for the senator's primary defeat. (As state director, it was her job to prevent Lieberman from having a primary challenger.) One factor could make hiring a new campaign team easier: Lieberman should be able to pay them top dollar. Despite his primary defeat, fund-raising likely won't be a problem. In fact, his defeat may actually help--in that it could spur Republican donors, particularly those who like Lieberman's views on Israel, to contribute to his campaign. The Lieberman campaign refuses to divulge how much money it has raised since last Tuesday's primary (Lieberman finished the primary campaign with $2 million in his campaign treasury), but anecdotal reports suggest it may be substantial. Sean Smith, who managed Lieberman's primary campaign, says that, on his final day in Lieberman's employ, the donations were pouring in. "The day after the primary, the phone was ringing off the hook," Smith recalls. "And most of the people calling were saying they wanted to contribute money." Once Lieberman addresses his staff issues, he'll have to turn to strategic ones. Specifically, he'll have to figure out what it means to be an "independent Democrat" committed to a "politics of unity and purpose." Chances are, it will mean deemphasizing the former in favor of the latter. "He's not going to try and hide the fact that he's a Democrat," says a Lieberman adviser. "But he's not running in the Democratic primary--he's not going to be leading with party affiliation." Or, as one former Lieberman adviser puts it: "Now he's appealing to a different set of voters who may not give a shit if he caucuses with the Democrats or considers himself a Democrat." At the same time, Lieberman will likely try to make an issue out of Lamont's partisanship. "The liberal primary handcuffs are off and he can talk about the full range of issues and highlight Lamont's more extreme views," says the Lieberman adviser. "It's going to be an interesting dance for [Lamont] to show that he's a mainstream leader when he's got Al Sharpton standing over his shoulder." But it's going to be an interesting dance for Lieberman, as well, if he's going to try to paint a relatively mainstream Democrat like Lamont as an extremist while at the same time maintaining his own ties to the Democratic Party. Already, Lieberman took a bad step when, two days after the primary and in the wake of the London terrorist arrests, he said that Lamont's call for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq "will be taken as a tremendous victory by the same people who wanted to blow up these planes in the plot hatched in England." Gerstein defends Lieberman's comments: "He didn't politicize national security. He talked about the implications of the position that Ned Lamont is advocating." But other Lieberman supporters were appalled. "It's beneath him to suggest that terrorists in London are going to be encouraged by something Ned Lamont says," says one prominent Democrat supporting Lieberman's independent bid. A Democratic strategist is more pointed still: "What, he's going to be more vicious attacking Ned Lamont than he was attacking Dick Cheney during that terrible debate in 2000?" Indeed, it's likely that, if Lieberman continues with the attacks on Lamont as soft on defense and weak on terrorism, senior Democrats will begin pressuring him--something they have so far refrained from doing. "I think he'll get phone calls from [Connecticut Senator Chris] Dodd and Bill Clinton at a minimum telling him that what he's doing is not helpful to the party," says another Democratic strategist. "I think he'd listen to them. If Al Gore were to make that phone call, I don't think it would go over that well." Lieberman's independent candidacy could hurt the Democrats in more concrete ways, too. In particular, Lieberman's continued candidacy will likely provide ideological cover to the three congressional Republicans in Connecticut who face stiff Democratic challenges and who can burnish their "moderate" credentials by linking themselves to Lieberman. (Embattled Representative Christopher Shays has already endorsed Lieberman in the general.) Lieberman, meanwhile, probably won't lift a finger to help the three Democratic challengers since, after the primary, they all endorsed Lamont. "They're going to stay out of our way," says former Connecticut Democratic Party Chairman John Droney, who's supporting Lieberman's independent campaign, "and we're going to stay out of theirs." Which raises perhaps the most fundamental question about Lieberman's independent bid: Will he still be a Democrat when it's over? To win the election, Lieberman won't have to be much of one. As Droney explains, "He needs to get 40 percent of Connecticut Democrats and then 40 to 50 percent of everybody else." The endorsements Lamont received after his primary victory from prominent Democrats, Droney adds, likely won't have "any impact on the race. ... If that were the case, every Democrat would have voted for Joe in the primary because he had Bill Clinton." But, if the Democratic establishment lining up behind Lamont doesn't take an electoral toll on Lieberman, it could take a psychological one. "I think he believes a lot of his colleagues are doing what they have to do publicly, and he sort of expected it," says one former Lieberman adviser. Still, "there's definitely been a growing sense of hurt, since at least 2003 and his presidential campaign, about the way parts of the party have treated him." Others in Lieberman's circle think that the senator's sense of hurt could grow--and that his Democratic identity could wither--even more. "I know that, in his heart of hearts, he considers himself a Democrat, but it'll be interesting to see how he feels when this is all over and done with," says one Lieberman friend. "Over the next three months, he's going to be embraced by Republicans and spurned by the organized Democratic Party, including a lot of people he considers to be his friends. It's hard to say how much that's going to affect him, but he wouldn't be human if it didn't."