As the world prepares for the very real possibility of a President Donald Trump, people are wondering how the polls could have been so wrong. According to numerous polls as of yesterday, Hillary Clinton was consistently predicted to win. It’s as if the Democrats and media outlets collectively hired Mitt Romney’s disgraced pollster and lulled themselves into a massively skewed fantasy.
But this is not just an American problem; it has clearly been a pattern around the world. The ghost of Brexit has loomed over this election for months, but it’s more than Brexit, going as far as the surprising right-wing victories in Israel or the vote against Scottish independence.
What’s going on? As one analyst at the FiveThirtyEight blog mused, the results could be blamed on a normal polling error of two to three points. Either way, one clear casualty of this year’s election is our trust in election forecasts and polls.