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Kavanaugh narrowly wins procedural vote but his final fate is uncertain.

With a 51-49 Senate vote for cloture, Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination has cleared the penultimate hurdle before the final vote, which could come as early as Saturday. The vote was along party lines with two exceptions: Alaska Republican Lisa Murkowski voted no and West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin voted yes.

The narrowness of the victory points to an extremely close final vote. There are only four real uncertain votes: Murkowski, Manchin, Arizona Republican Jeff Flake and Maine Republican Susan Collins. Having voted no on cloture, Murkowski is unlikely to vote yes on the final vote, although anything is still possible. Kavanaugh would need to win three out of the four of this group.

What’s notable is that the situation remains in flux so close to the final vote. The murkiness was captured by conflicting analysis on Twitter: