The Crucial Senate Race Dems Are Forgetting About

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Inside Washington

The crucial Senate race Dems are forgetting about

New Hampshire isn’t on most Democrats’ list of competitive Senate races, but maybe it should be. Recent polling finds the contest between Democrat Chris Pappas and Republican John Sununu, who were officially confirmed as their parties’ candidates after winning Tuesday’s primary, within the margin of error. The race is one “Democrats can’t afford to toss aside,” Representative Pappas, who currently represents New Hampshire’s 1st congressional district, warned in late August. “If we can’t hold the Senate seat, then the math just doesn’t work in other states.”

Many Democrats have assumed that the New Hampshire Senate race is in the bag for Pappas, who is running to replace departing Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen. The state’s congressional delegation is entirely Democratic, and President Trump’s approval rating has been falling in the state. Plus, Democrats have their work cut out for them in states like Michigan, Ohio, and Maine, and resources are finite.

But political experts in the state say that Pappas’s race appears competitive. Polls throughout the summer typically showed Pappas narrowly ahead of his opponent, former Representative and Senator John Sununu, but a late August poll showed Sununu up by two points. Inside Elections shifted the race from “Tilt Democratic” to “Toss-up” on September 3. The Cook Political Report rates the race “Lean D.”

“I don’t think this is going to be easy” for Democrats, said Wayne Lesperance, a professor of political science and the president of New England College. “The Republicans have chosen the best candidate they could.” He pointed to Sununu’s high name recognition from his time in office and his brother’s popularity as governor. Even though Sununu has Trump’s endorsement, he hasn’t mentioned it and has worked to distance himself from the unpopular president. “For a lot of voters, they see [Sununu] as sort of a throwback in a good way,” explained Christopher Galdieri, a professor of political science at Saint Anselm College. “He is really hammering hard in his advertising that he’s from back when Congress worked and politics wasn’t so loud and nasty.”

Pappas has some significant advantages, though. The unpopularity of Trump’s policies is a clear one—like Maine, New Hampshire has been hit hard by the tariff war with Canada and a decrease in Canadian tourism. “Anything that becomes a barrier to trade hurts the Granite State,” Lesperance said. The impact of tariffs “magnifies the challenges around affordability,” an issue that Democrats have been hammering nationwide this year. On Wednesday, the Pappas campaign released a list of the times Sununu has supported Trump’s agenda, trying to tie him to the president.

Pappas can also likely draw in New Hampshire’s undeclared voters, who make up about 40 percent of the electorate. These voters tend to mirror the state’s fiscally conservative and socially liberal values, explained Linda Fowler, a professor of government at Dartmouth College. “The Republicans in Washington have not performed as the independent voters would like. In fact, they’ve been emphasizing social issues on the conservative side, and being very irresponsible fiscally.”

Pappas has won his elections in the swingy 1st congressional district since 2018, showing that he can appeal to these undeclared voters. Now Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of the retiring senator, is running for that seat. In the state’s only other congressional district, incumbent Representative Maggie Goodlander will face a rematch with Republican Lily Tang Williams.

Pappas may also benefit from national Democratic figures eager to campaign with him in New Hampshire ahead of 2028. Rumored presidential contenders Senator Mark Kelly and Representative Ro Khanna have spent time in the state in recent weeks. Pete Buttigieg campaigned with Pappas in February and will return in early October for a state Democratic Party fundraiser.

In addition to the tariff issue, housing affordability is a major concern in New Hampshire, and one that has been relatively underemphasized so far in the Senate race. The professors who spoke to The New Republic on Wednesday said that they’re looking for either of the candidates to come up with convincing solutions to the state’s high property taxes and low housing stock.

Democratic groups like WinSenate, which is affiliated with the Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer–aligned Senate Majority PAC, said it plans to spend over $10 million on television ads for the race. The Senate GOP-aligned PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, has pledged to spend $17 million on the race, and Elon Musk’s America PAC is jumping in to boost conservative candidates in the state.

The risk that Pappas could be wildly outspent by Republicans and their allies is part of why his campaign and outside observers are getting nervous. “I think the good news for Pappas is that people are having these discussions now, at the beginning of September and not October 25,” said Galdieri. “Which means there’s time.”

—Emma Janssen

Outside Washington

Wondering how Trump’s ongoing trade wars could affect the midterm elections? Stateline’s Kevin Hardy has a useful overview of the potential effects in the Midwest and several New England states. Ohio comes in for particular attention. “Canada is Ohio’s biggest export market, sending $17.5 billion in goods across the border,” writes Hardy, and “Canadian data show countermeasures will hit Ohio harder than any other state.” It’s not hard to imagine that this will be a factor in the Senate face-off between Republican Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown. (Recent polling mostly shows Brown with a single-digit lead.)

Republican Brandon Herrera, running in Texas’s 23rd congressional district, is brushing off concerns about an array of offensive comments he reportedly made about women, fat people, and homeless people, saying they were “jokes.” He also responded to criticism of his disparaging remarks about feminists by pointing to Democratic opponent Katy Padilla Stout’s work on one case where, according to The Guardian, she “was appointed as a defense attorney for a father seeking to restore parental rights after a domestic abuse allegation.” There has not been much polling on this race.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

Inside Washington

Friday at 1 p.m., the Brookings Institution hosts an in-person and online event on “The 9/11 terrorist attacks at 25: Assessing the legacy, addressing the future.” Maryland Governor Wes Moore will deliver a keynote. Other speakers include American University professor Tricia Bacon and numerous Brookings fellows and directors, including Jeffrey Feltman, Fonteh Akum, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Ben Harris, Robert Kagan, William A. Galston, Marla Karlin, Suzanne Maloney, and Melanie W. Sisson. New York Times national security correspondent Eric Schmitt will also join as a moderator.

At the Center for American Progress, Ben Hovland offers “5 Quick Steps to Protect Your Right to Vote.” These include checking your registration but also, crucially, voting “as soon as you are ready. Early in-person voting and other options add resilience to the election process. If something unexpected comes up, whether that is with your voter record or simply because life gets busy, voting early gives you more time and options.”

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Here’s Why That’s B.S.

Watch TNR’s Edie Olmsted tackle Trump’s bizarre new story that firemen carried him out of danger at Ground Zero shortly after the attacks on the Twin Towers.

Political Trivia Question of the Day

On this day before September 11: Before 9/11 became 9/11, remembered for the horrific events it’s remembered for, Tuesday, September 11, 2001 was what day in New York City? (Sign up for The TNR Blue Book to find the answer in Tuesday’s newsletter.)

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Inside Washington

This could be the biggest issue of 2027. Dems are split on it.

Representative Lori Trahan has been positioning herself as a leader on artificial intelligence policy—so much so that she passed up a chance at a leadership role to instead focus on AI policy, she told Politico in an interview published Tuesday. Polls show voters’ concern over artificial intelligence is rising rapidly, whether it’s because of cybersecurity risks, data centers, or job loss. But it’s not yet clear which Democrats—and which proposals—might lead the way in a Democratic-led House come January.

Trahan’s legislation, the FRONTIER Act, is co-written with GOP Representative Jay Obernolte, and would give the government the authority to pause the deployment of risky AI models. Advocates for the bill say that it introduces safety guardrails while remaining flexible and without stifling innovation.But Trahan’s bill is one of a number of proposals Democrats have floated in recent months. And it’s not clear that hers is the one the party would support. In fact, some experts are concerned that Trahan’s bill might do more harm than good due to its preemption of state-level AI legislation, where the federal legislation would block states from making their own policies that go further. “The irony of the FRONTIER Act is that it draws inspiration from the California and New York AI laws,” said Amos Toh, a senior counsel and manager at the Brennan Center, referencing legislation passed by the two states that requires frontier AI labs to establish a framework for risk management and report safety breaches to the state. The New York bill, the RAISE Act, was championed by state Representative Alex

Bores, who lost his primary for Congress after AI-affiliated PACs spent millions against him.”Because of the political paralysis in Congress, [states] are the ones that are leading the thinking and development of what AI regulation should look like,” Toh added. Preempting state regulation “should give us all pause.” Jeff

Hauser, the founder and executive director of the Revolving Door Project, agrees with Toh’s concerns. He said it’s a matter of “legislative humility,” arguing that preemption assumes the federal approach is more correct than what states could legislate, a dangerous assumption given how fast the AI industry is changing.

Trahan and Obernolte addressed the preemption issue in late July, editing the original draft of the bill to decrease—but not fully eliminate—what the bill preempts. The latest version of the legislation would still preempt states on mandatory incident reporting and third-party audits of AI labs. “The FRONTIER Act does not ban states from regulating artificial intelligence. In fact, it expressly preserves state authority to protect kids online, and to enforce the civil rights, consumer protection, and privacy laws that govern how AI is developed, deployed, and used,” Trahan wrote in a newsletter sent to constituents.Trahan is not the only Democratic lawmaker who has been positioning herself as a leader on AI. In July, Representative Ted Lieu also unveiled a bipartisan proposal, the AI Kill Switch Act, which would require AI labs to report security incidents and create a mechanism to shut down their most powerful models. Lieu is a member of the recently created House Democratic Commission on AI and the Innovation Economy, alongside Representatives Valerie Foushee, Josh Gottheimer, Frank Pallone Jr., and Zoe Lofgren. Henry Burke, a researcher at the Revolving Door Project, criticized those appointments, arguing that the commission’s members are too entangled with Big Tech.

Representative Greg Casar has also unveiled a series of bills related to AI this year, including a plan to protect workers from AI-related job loss and a proposal to ban artificial superintelligence in partnership with Senator Bernie Sanders.

Lieu sees room for collaboration with other pieces of legislation: “We need to look at both predeployment and postdeployment issues with AI, but the Kill Switch bill focuses on models that go rogue after they have already been built,” he said in a statement to The New Republic. “The bill would be complementary to any bills that address the testing and vetting of AI models that have not yet been deployed.”

Trahan doesn’t care for some of these competing proposals. “A permanent ban with no path to passage, that doesn’t protect anyone,” Trahan told Politico about Casar and Sanders’s legislation. Outright bans, she said, could “trigger a backlash that chokes off the chance to put sensible, durable guardrails in place for the future.”

Hauser disagrees with that reasoning. The AI industry “was way more politically powerful a year ago than they are now,” he told The New Republic. “They are right now a millstone around the necks of their top advocates, and people are scrambling to switch positions on AI,” he added, pointing to recent 180s on AI from Governors Josh Shapiro and Greg Abbott.

“What’s been concerning to me about Lori Trahan is how well she fits into the ‘in order to do X, we have to sacrifice on Y’ school, which I think is just what the AI oligarchs want,” Hauser said. He explained his concern that some lawmakers make “false choices,” for example only focusing on narrow AI safety issues, leaving open space for AI companies to harm the economy or build more data centers.

One way or another, Democrats will need a strategy on AI regulation—particularly if they win big in the November midterms. But the bills are only one piece of that. Toh said he’s also keeping an eye on what kinds of hearings and investigations Democrats conduct on AI-related cybersecurity breaches, like the recent OpenAI and Hugging Face incident. “I think it’s very much about setting the tone for the next Congress,” he said. “I think an early marker of that will really be whether they are conducting proper, rigorous, and independent investigations and hearings into how AI developers and their trusted partners got us into this situation.”

—Emma Janssen

Outside Washington

As Trump and MAGA-world head into their all-hands-on-deck attempt to save Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, Democrat James Talarico continues to trot out endorsements from the people Paxton has pissed off over the years. Amid a $10 million ad buy from the MAGA Inc. super PAC and GOP preparations for an unprecedented midterm “convention” in Dallas featuring both the president and vice president, the Talarico team on Tuesday dropped a new ad featuring David Maxwell, the director of law enforcement for the attorney general’s office during Paxton’s tenure as attorney general. Maxwell was one of the people who were fired by Paxton’s office after they reported Paxton to the FBI for misusing his position to help a donor friend. In the ad that dropped Tuesday, Maxwell says Talarico “knows a bad guy when he sees one.” And just for good measure, in a statement reported by The Texas Tribune, Maxwell calls Paxton a “crook.”

This ad comes on the heels of a similar one. Last month, Joe Joplin, the attorney whose $1,000 Montblanc pen Paxton (allegedly, but on video) stole in 2012, endorsed Talarico. The campaign ran a “Vote for James Talarico. He won’t steal your pen” ad around it, and added a black pen with white lettering reading “Not Ken Paxton’s Pen” to its campaign merch.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

Thursday at 1 p.m., the Roosevelt Institute hosts a Zoom conversation “about the future of Social Security revenue” with the organization’s “Good Life Residents” Tyler Bond, Jon Schwabish, and Lena Simet. The panel will discuss closing various tax loopholes and “how future revenue reform can preserve Social Security’s core guarantees, reject benefit cuts, and create room to strengthen and expand the program as a durable system of progressive social insurance.”

Thursday at 11 a.m., the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
hosts a live event about the “lessons learned and unlearned” in the 25 years since the September 11 attacks. Carnegie senior fellow Aaron David Miller will speak with Brookings scholar Philip Gordon, the McCain Institute’s Nicholas Rasmussen, and Susan B. Glasser of The New Yorker.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Book of the Week

THE GIST: This is the biography of lawyer and conservative activist Roy Cohn that this country has been waiting decades for. “Before Roy Cohn, America had a bipartisan establishment that adjudicated the rough edges of the country’s raucous democracy,” Bird, the preeminent biographer of said establishment, writes with the help of his longtime researcher (and wife) Susan Goldmark. “Cohn used his entire career to subvert the establishment, breaking all the rules and creating a divisive, highly partisan political culture that has reinforced the legacy of Senator Joe McCarthy.”

PRAISE: New York Times critic Jennifer Szalai highlights the significance of the book’s title, which mirrors Bird’s more famous biography of Robert Oppenheimer (American Prometheus), which was adapted by Christopher Nolan for the big screen. “When Oppenheimer witnessed the first detonation of a nuclear bomb,” Szalai writes, “he was reminded of a line from the Bhagavad-Gita: ‘Now I am become Death, the Destroyer of Worlds.’ He was horrified by the new reality that he had helped bring into being…. A Prometheus steals fire for humanity; a scoundrel takes everyone for a ride.”

CRUISING THE INDEX: The best and most revelatory parts of this book are hardly surprising—they detail Cohn’s relationship with his (sort of) mentor Joseph McCarthy and his protégé Donald Trump. But American Scoundrel is also a fine book about New York high society, albeit somewhat on the margins—the sections on upscale Jewish life in the 1920s and 1930s and Cohn’s glitzy, seedy social life in the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s are particularly interesting. And while this is a book about many of the worst people in American life in the second half of the twentieth century—Trump, McCarthy, Roger Stone, and, of course, Cohn himself—there are plenty of other cameos. Cohn’s social circle also included Barbara Walters, Walter Winchell, George Steinbrenner, and William F. Buckley Jr.

TNR’S QUICK CRITICAL ASSESSMENT: There have been great fictional portrayals of Cohn. (Al Pacino in Angels in America, and Jeremy Strong, who contributed research materials to American Scoundrel, come to mind.) But a full-scale biography like this has been desperately needed. Bird has produced it. American Scoundrel isn’t just a book about Cohn and the twentieth century—it’s a book about how he shaped the twenty-first century, too. We are still living in his world, now perhaps more than ever.

—Alex Shephard

Political Trivia Question of the Day

With New Hampshire in the news: Back when the state’s first-in-the-nation primary was important, one Democratic front-runner was laid low there when he responded emotionally to a false charge against him—who was the candidate, and what was the year? (Sign up for The TNR Blue Book to find the answer in Tuesday’s newsletter.)

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Inside Washington

President Donald Trump’s efforts to restrict mail-in voting have grabbed news headlines in recent days, as the Postal Service builds an involved screening system that would require states to submit voter information before sending out absentee ballots. But one potential consequence has not received the same level of attention: the implications for Indigenous voters across the country. In addition to throwing up more roadblocks for a population that has historically faced significant obstacles to voting, these moves by the USPS could have an impact in key elections in states such as Alaska and Arizona. 

Tribal voters living at remote addresses on reservations may need to travel for hours to reach their nearest polling place, meaning that absentee voting is the best method for having their voices heard. “Often, vote by mail is the only option that is made available to Native communities. And so, when you disrupt that process or start creating lists that are imperfect and keep people off [of voting rolls], then Native voters are going to be inevitably cut out and disenfranchised,” said Jacqueline De León, a senior staff attorney at the Native American Rights Fund. 

A federal whistleblower has alleged that the development and deployment of the USPS system has been rushed and haphazard, and could result in voter disenfranchisement ahead of the general election. Despite a court order barring the Postal Service from continuing to develop the portal, the agency said this week that it is moving forward with its plans.

Native voters already face difficulties in having their vote counted. Some states with photo ID requirements for voting do not accept tribal identification. Because many Native Americans living on tribal lands do not have traditional addresses, they may need to pay for a P.O. box if they want to receive any kind of mail—including absentee ballots. The new policy would present yet another barrier.

“I know tons of Native people who all have their mail delivered to one family member’s house because it’s the only house that USPS reliably can find. These are things that could easily trigger false red flags in a system that’s not carefully designed around the realities of Native voters,” Elizabeth Reese, an associate professor at Stanford Law School who specializes in tribal law, told The New Republic in an email.

The lack of traditional addresses also presents challenges to registering to vote and staying on voter rolls. A new report by the Native American Rights Fund, or NARF, and Blackwell Consulting found that rejections of voter registration applications via mail and the Department of Motor Vehicles spiked dramatically in counties where Native Americans account for at least 25 percent of the population between 2020 and 2024. The report analyzed data from the 2020, 2022, and 2024 elections.

“Native voters do not receive equitable services, and often receive inadequate services, which result in Native voters having to navigate really unreasonable barriers in order to cast a ballot,” said De León. “I think that it would shock the conscience of the everyday American if they knew how difficult it can be to vote in Indian country.”

Native voters may be particularly susceptible to being purged from the rolls because notices sent by election officials to confirm voter information go unanswered, and that in turn could be because the mail is undeliverable.

When voters are removed from the rolls—sometimes without their knowledge—they can submit provisional ballots, but these can also end up being rejected. Provisional ballot voting more than doubled between 2020 and 2024 in counties with a significant Native population, according to the NARF report, but the provisional ballot rejection rate in counties with significant Native populations is higher than the national rate. The rate of rejection for mail-in ballots also increased in these counties between 2020 and 2024, even as the actual number of mail-in ballots cast declined.

These challenges may have significant repercussions for critical swing elections this year, which could determine control of Congress and of governors’ mansions across the country. Alaska has a large Native population, a significant portion of whom live in rural areas that may not reliably receive mail—a factor that could affect the outcome of the competitive Senate race between Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan. Reese said she was “particularly worried” about how the screening system being built by USPS could potentially affect that race.

“This is the state with the highest percentage of Native voters, the most significant challenges for in-person voter access, and that happens to be one of the races that could determine control of the Senate,” said Reese.

Native voters could also have an impact in the close gubernatorial race in Arizona, where Democrat Governor Katie Hobbs is fighting to stay in office. 

Native Americans have faced deliberate hurdles to make voting more difficult for them since they were granted the right to vote in 1924. This election is making both the stakes and the complexities of voting access especially clear. “Native voters hold a tremendous amount of political power,” De León said. But they also “have to expend more time and resources to exercise their fundamental right to vote.” In close contests, that vote may be a determining factor in which candidate wins the race.

—Grace Segers

Outside Washington

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel finds that ICE arrests spiked dramatically in Wisconsin over the summer. “ICE detained and arrested more than 250 people in Wisconsin in June alone, an 82 percent increase compared to the previous month. Immigration arrests slowed but remained elevated in July,” reports Eva Wen. (For more on how ICE seems to have adapted post-Minneapolis, hitting new records without making as many headlines, read Melissa Gira Grant’s analysis from July.)

Colorado Public Radio profiles Democrat Eileen Laubacher, a retired Navy rear admiral who’s challenging Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s 4th congressional district. “There are more than twice as many registered Republicans as there are Democrats in the district, although almost half of the registered voters are unaffiliated,” reports Caitlyn Kim. “The last time the district elected a Democrat was in 2008, when Democrat Barack Obama was at the top of the ticket.” But despite that, some people are letting themselves feel just a wee bit optimistic about Dem chances of flipping the seat: Laubacher has far out-raised Boebert, and Trump is very unpopular.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

Data for Progress finds that voters “strongly disapprove of Trump’s handling of Israel-Palestine conflicts” and that this disapproval has grown over the course of the year: “In January, voters were roughly split in their assessment of Trump’s handling of the conflict, with 42 percent approving and 44 percent disapproving—a −2-point margin. Today, only 33 percent of voters approve of Trump’s handling of this issue, while 56 percent disapprove—a −23-point margin.”

At the Brennan Center, Derek Tisler, Edgardo Cortés, and Elizabeth Howard have put together a guide to how official election results are tallied. “Each of these steps has safeguards in place to protect the rights of voters and the integrity of our elections,” they emphasize. “They are conducted in public; representatives from both parties, citizens, and the media can observe that they are done properly. At each step, voters, candidates, and other interested parties can go to court to enforce these safeguards if needed.” They take readers through the steps of receiving and processing ballots, tabulating, election-night reporting of unofficial results, provisional ballots, curing, and more. A useful resource as the November elections (and concerns about the process) draw closer.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Good week: Mary Peltola

The Democratic candidate for Senate in Alaska keeps getting encouraging signs in a very tough red-leaning state. The latest vote tally of the state’s nonpartisan primary now shows her and the other Democratic finisher totaling over 50 percent, a key metric. The news came as the other Democrat, David Leslie, withdrew this week, enabling Peltola to consolidate the Democratic vote. Indeed, one forecaster now rates Peltola “narrowly favored.” Though a lot can still go wrong, there’s now a pretty clear path.

Bad week: Scott Bessent

The treasury secretary has had a string of unsightly public pratfalls. This week, reporters grilled the Trump administration on Bessent’s July prediction that gas prices would drop to $3 per gallon by Labor Day, which hasn’t exactly panned out. Bessent also engaged in heavy-handed ridicule of Canada’s supposed weakness, which looks particularly tone-deaf amid mounting GOP angst about his and Trump’s dim-witted trade war with our northern ally. And Bessent endured harsh mockery over his sneering claim that Ukraine’s defense of itself against Russian aggression is to blame for high energy prices. In sum, Bessent is now the front man in defending some of Trump’s most buffoonish and destructive failures, and as he’s finding out the hard way, they’re, well, indefensible.

Political Trivia Question of the Day  

Name the union each of these labor leaders helped found or famously led for many years: Bill Haywood; John L. Lewis; A. Philip Randolph; Dolores Huerta; Walter Reuther; William Winpisinger. (Sign up for The TNR Blue Book to find the answer in Tuesday’s newsletter.)

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Inside Washington

Is this district the key to the 2026 midterms?

The closely watched rematch in Virginia’s 2nd congressional district between former Democratic Representative Elaine Luria and the Republican who defeated her in 2022 is shaping up to be a doozy. The famously swingy district in southeastern Virginia has close ties with the military. President Donald Trump’s war in Iran and commensurate hikes in energy costs—and the extent to which sitting Republican Representative Jen Kiggans gets tagged with them—will define the election.

“Usually, foreign conflicts engender a rally round the flag sentiment in military communities. But in this case, the handling of the Iran war has caused well-publicized hardships for the military, especially sailors. This creates a challenge for Republicans in the 2nd district,” said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.*

In 2022, Kiggans successfully tied Luria to unpopular President Joe Biden. Now the situation is reversed. Trump’s national approval rating is consistently hovering below 40 percent, and he is presiding over an economy that Americans view unfavorably.

“Although Republican voters are notable for their loyalty, the combination of the war going badly and high gas prices will weaken the reflexive support of some GOP voters. The effect will be amplified among independent voters,” Rozell continued.

Luria has focused on Trump before, including as a member of the select committee investigating the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol—and has acknowledged that her service on that panel may have cost her reelection. But she’s concentrating her campaign on Kiggans’s support for the current Trump administration, not the previous one.

“She’s not a moderate. She can’t separate herself from Trump,” Luria said of Kiggans on MS NOW’s Morning Joe this week, pointing to Kiggans’s vote in favor of legislation that cut Medicaid and other government benefits, and her vote against renewing expired Affordable Care Act subsidies. Luria has also hammered Kiggans over her positions on the Iran war: Kiggans voted seven times against resolutions that would have directed Trump to end the war or seek congressional approval.

Kiggans said in August that she would “like to see that conflict wrap up so we can bring our military men and women home.” But Luria has criticized Kiggans for previously dismissing reports of bleak conditions on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, which is now headed home after a nine-month deployment. “It really shows a lack of care and concern for our military, our military families,” Luria said on Morning Joe. Both Kiggans and Luria are Navy veterans.

The district is uncommonly purple, with voters hopping between narrow support for candidates of both parties in federal and state elections. Although Kiggans flipped the seat in 2022, Trump’s margin of victory in the district was only 0.2 percent in 2024, and Democrat Abigail Spanberger earned just over 53 percent of the vote in the 2025 gubernatorial race. There’s consensus among political analysts on the unpredictability of the contest between Luria and Kiggans: The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, and Inside Elections have all rated the seat as a “toss-up.”

Carolyn Fiddler, a left-leaning state elections expert based in Virginia, told The New Republic that the district has a strong politically independent streak. When she first ran, Kiggans was able to cast herself as more moderate, but now she has a record of supporting Trump’s policies.

“She’s doing nothing to really distance herself from Trump, and I think that’s going to cut against her,” Fiddler continued. Virginia Beach, one of the district’s hubs, is also a key site for wind farm construction—which Trump has opposed. Hampton Roads, the district’s other main city, is also prone to flooding, meaning that climate change could be a concern in the election. “These environmental concerns provide another whole avenue of opportunities for Luria to set herself apart,” said Fiddler.

The race is being closely monitored by House leadership, with Speaker Mike Johnson saying during a visit to the district in August that it “will determine the fate of the country because this will be a close election.” He isn’t being hyperbolic. J. Miles Coleman, the associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, told The New Republic by email that the fate of the 2nd district would be an indicator of Democrats’ overall chances of taking the House.

“Since the 2008 elections, the party that has won VA-2 has also won the House overall; so Democrats could capture the House without it, but it would be a bit of a curiosity if they didn’t,” Coleman wrote. “If Democrats fail to win VA-2, the majority could still be within reach for Republicans. If Democrats flip VA-2, they probably have at least a majority in the 220s.”

—Grace Segers

Outside Washington

It probably won’t get the attention it deserves—climate fatigue is real—but amid devastating news of flash floods on multiple continents, unprecedented heat waves and revised estimates of heat-related deaths, widespread wildfires, and plummeting harvests, the United Nations has released another climate report, and it’s a doozy. The longtime goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial temperatures is toast, dozens of climate scientists say: Earth will pass that point in a few years. The urgent task now is to reduce emissions with extreme speed, and “aggressively pursue measures that pull heat-trapping gases out of the atmosphere, so global temperatures will start to decline,” The Washington Post reports. “In a best-case scenario, this pathway will limit the planet’s time above 1.5 degrees to a few decades.” The bad news is that carbon removal at scale so far remains highly hypothetical, and even if that changes, “it will not restore the world we once knew.” The Post’s Sarah Kaplan reviews some of the details, and attempts to end on a hopeful—or at least agency-promoting—note: “The report’s authors urged people to stay focused on what scientists do know: That every fraction of a degree matters. That the sooner humanity acts, the safer our future will be.”

Earlier this summer, Inside Climate News analyzed congressional press releases, finding that Democrats’ mentions of climate change had fallen precipitously in recent years, even though there’s little evidence to support this strategy of retreat. A few Democrats, including Senator Sheldon Whitehouse and Representative Ro Khanna, have sharply criticized this trend within the party and urged politicians to talk more about the climate crisis.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

Thursday at 9:30 a.m. the Center for Strategic and International Studies will release a live webcast in which the organization’s Energy Security and Climate Change Program director Joseph Majkut and senior adviser Kevin Brook discuss “the new U.S.-Venezuela oil agreement and what it signals about the growing role of energy in geopolitical competition.”

Public Citizen released a new report alleging that “many” of the companies involved in President Trump’s $3 billion critical minerals initiative “are examples of potential cronyism or are still in the early stages of development.” The watchdog lists examples of firms that “are only nine months old, connected to the administration’s family members or donors, associated with past fraud or fraud allegations, or whose financial backers remain largely hidden from public view.”

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Here’s Why That’s B.S.

Why is JD Vance talking about the end of the world with a 22-year-old podcaster? Watch TNR’s Edie Olmsted get into this mess of a story.

Political Trivia Question of the Day

With so many eyes on the Texas Senate race, two questions: Who was the last elected Democratic senator from Texas, and who was the last actually liberal Democratic senator from Texas? The former beat the latter in the 1970 Democratic primary, pounding him from the right over his opposition to the Vietnam War. (Sign up for The TNR Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.)

* This quote was previously attributed to the wrong person.

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Inside Washington

The Ukraine bill that House Dems have no intention of passing

For years, Democrats in both chambers of Congress could reliably agree on support for Ukraine. But now, House Democrats are pushing back against a Russia sanctions bill that sailed through the Senate in July, frustrating their colleagues in the upper chamber. The issue? House Democrats say it gives too much power to President Trump.

Representative Gregory Meeks of New York, ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, thinks, in lieu of this particular sanctions bill, the Senate should pass a bipartisan bill that the House approved in June. That legislation provides more aid to Ukraine and expands sanctions on Russia but does not include sweeping tariff authorities for President Donald Trump.

“The Senate is not superior to the House. We both pass bills, so we should be discussing both bills and making a determination what would be the best bill to support Ukraine,” Meeks told reporters on Tuesday.

The Senate legislation—named for the late GOP Senator Lindsey Graham—passed in the upper chamber with a final tally of 86–11, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the chamber for the vote. The measure allows Trump to impose new tariffs on countries that import Russian oil, and imposes punishing sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials and institutions.

The legislation was introduced after roughly a year of negotiations with Trump to get to a point both he and a bipartisan majority in Congress could accept. Senator Richard Blumenthal, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and co-sponsor of the bill, has urged his colleagues in the House to support the measure.

“It is a moment of extreme urgency, for the reason that Putin may try to escalate, but also because Putin is on his heels economically,” Blumenthal told CBS News on Sunday.

But key House Democrats say giving Trump further tariff authority could be unwise, given the president’s retributive trade wars with U.S. allies. They argue that Trump only agreed to the bill because it included a provision that allows him to waive any sanctions, as long as he justifies it as in the “national interest.” Given that Trump has expressed an affinity for Putin, some Democrats worry that Trump might remove sanctions on Russia instead of adding to them.

Representative Don Beyer of Virginia told The New Republic on Tuesday that Russia has enough “kompromat” on Trump that even if the measure did pass, the president wouldn’t actually take action against Putin. “He’ll just break the law and wait for someone to sue him,” Beyer said.

Blumenthal has said that, while the bill allows for sanctions on Russia’s trading partners, it would not affect European allies, because it carves out certain exceptions. Senator Raphael Warnock, who had initially held up the bill in the upper chamber, was assuaged by Trump trade representative Jamieson Greer’s promise to lift tariffs once countries are no longer purchasing Russian oil and gas.

“If you give [Trump] an inch, he will take a mile. We don’t have to imagine. We are seeing it in real time,” said Warnock in a speech on the Senate floor in August. “But this commitment that we were able to get from Ambassador Greer is meaningful, because if the president ignores the law, if he oversteps his power, we will see him in court.”

House Democrats aren’t convinced. Meeks noted that the provision to allow Trump to impose up to 100 percent tariffs on the largest importers of Russian oil could include the European Union.

“I’ve heard Mr. Blumenthal and others say, ‘Oh, it won’t affect our allies.’ He says, ‘It won’t affect our European allies,’ but it’ll affect the EU. Who’s the EU? Our European allies,” argued Meeks. He believes the Senate measure looks good on paper but would allow Trump to waive sanctions on Russia rather than impose them.

“You look at the mess we have with Canada, and how many allies we’ve pissed off because of stupid tariffs, and the impact on consumers—he just can’t be trusted,” said Representative Linda Sánchez of California. Representative Richard Neal of Massachusetts has also expressed opposition to the Senate bill.

Zelenskiy’s top aide on sanctions, Vladyslav Vlasiuk, is meeting with House Democrats this week in an effort to sway their opinion on the measure. Meeks said Tuesday he was looking forward to speaking with him but that he believed his own legislation would be better for supporting Ukraine.

This entire disagreement may be moot: The House’s major priority this week is passing a continuing resolution to keep the government funded through mid-December. The House will be out next week for the Labor Day and Rosh Hashanah recess. It’s possible that they’ll decide not to return to Capitol Hill at all until after the November elections; Congress is already skipping town for the month of October to campaign.

Beyer said that even if the House did return the week after next, he wasn’t sure there would be time for any action, although he’d heard talk of a potential amendment to limit Trump’s tariff authority. A similar amendment failed in the Senate.

“The person who was telling me about writing the amendment also thought that Trump would still hate it, because he and [White House trade adviser Peter] Navarro want carte blanche tariff authority,” he said.

Despite the disagreement between Senate and House Democrats, Beyer said he hasn’t gotten too much guff from his Senate colleagues about opposing the bill.

“No one’s beating me up on it,” he said. “People are asking about it, they’re asking why, but nobody’s pressuring me to change my mind.”

—Grace Segers

Outside Washington

The San Francisco Chronicle reports that “more than two dozen immigrants, mostly green-card holders with past arrests, have been held at San Francisco International Airport this year without access to dedicated medical care, attorneys, or even beds for more than three days,” turning the airport into a “de facto immigration detention center.” Among other examples detailed in the Chronicle’s lengthy investigative report, staff writers Sara DiNatale and Christian Leonard recount the case of a “67-year-old diabetic” who has “been legally in the country for 50 years” but was pulled off a flight by immigration agents and “detained for eight days earlier this year without a way to check his blood sugar.” Democratic Representative Kevin Mullin, whose district includes SFO, reportedly demanded access to the Customs and Border Patrol facility at the airport after learning of the Chronicle’s investigation and was first (illegally) turned away before being admitted, six days later, to find five people in the “holding room.” He told the Chronicle that agents on-site “were not hiding from the fact this is a definitive policy shift from the Trump administration.”

The most quietly, boringly goofy story of impropriety this year has come to a close: Rhode Island State Representative Julie Casimiro has resigned her seat, following outcry at her continuing to draw a salary despite having moved to South Carolina in July. “Although state lawmakers only meet for the first six months of the year,” the Rhode Island Current’s Nancy Lavin explains, “their taxpayer-funded salary is spread across the entire calendar year.” That $20,922 salary amounts to “$800 every two weeks, plus health insurance.” Would that every political scandal these days could end so anticlimactically. Rhode Island’s primaries, which will include three candidates competing for Casimiro’s seat, take place September 9.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

The Ideas Factory

Thursday at noon, the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication hosts a live webinar on “how public opinion is affecting data center development.” YPCCC director Anthony Leiserowitz will moderate a discussion with George Mason University Ph.D. candidate Neha Gour and Rewiring America’s Kristin Eberhard. RSVP here.

In case you missed it: Graham Steele has a blog post at the Roosevelt Institute explaining in layman’s terms why Treasury yields and interest rates are up, what it means for the broader economy, and why the Trump administration’s responses so far haven’t worked. The bottom line: “At this point, there are no easy answers for how the U.S. government can pull itself out of the recurring cycle of market stress followed by chaotic policy responses,” writes Steele. But “a good place to start would be restoring the U.S. government’s reputation as a reliable and respected domestic and international actor committed to the rule of law and financial stability.” Continuing on the current course, he concludes, risks broad economic collapse.

—Heather Souvaine Horn

In Closing

Book of the Week

The Time Tax: How the Government Wastes Our Time—and How to Fix It

By Annie Lowrey

THE GIST: Want a government benefit you are entitled to—at least theoretically? To get it, you will probably have to go through expensive and confusing paperwork, bureaucratic delays, meetings, and more. In The Time Tax, Lowrey explains how we got here and what we can do about it.PRAISE: Tim Wu writes in The New York Times that “Lowrey’s book joins what is a growing push to tackle the hassles and frictions that make people hate government. We’ve seen what’s possible. We just need the collective will to use the tools we already have.”

CRUISING THE INDEX: Lowrey traces the “time tax” back to the Civil War, when bureaucratic hurdles were put in place out of anxiety that the wrong sorts of people—often racial minorities—would gain access to benefits they didn’t “deserve.” Bureaucracy may be utopian in theory, promising “order, fairness, impartiality, and predictability,” Lowrey writes. But the experience of it is more like Dante’s hell: “a rigid, insuperable hierarchy: spendthrifts pitted against heavyweights, alchemists afflicted with sores, flatterers immersed in shit, and traitors encased in ice.”

TNR’S QUICK CRITICAL ASSESSMENT: Combining incisive history with empathetic, wide-ranging reporting, one of the best policy writers in the country pinpoints a problem all of us face too often—and outlines how we can finally fix it.

—Alex Shephard

Political Trivia Question of the Day

Aside from the Roosevelts, what other presidents were related to each other? Three pairs shared a last name. The fourth connection is considerably more obscure (hint: One was a Founding Father, and the other was one of our few Whig presidents). (Sign up for The TNR Blue Book to find the answer in tomorrow’s newsletter.)