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Marco Rubio’s last stand is off to a bad start.

In the face of one humiliating defeat after another, Rubio has been telling his supporters and financial backers that it all comes down to Florida. If he wins his home state and its winner-take-all primary, then he’ll rocket to the nomination. If Rubio loses Florida, he’ll almost certainly drop out of the race. 

Well, things are not going well. Rubio’s momentum has stalled inside and outside of the state of Florida. A CNN/ORC poll released today has Donald Trump beating Rubio badly in the state, 40 percent to 24 percent. And a rally held by Rubio on Wednesday evening suggests that voters aren’t exactly flocking to his side: 

The first speaker at the rally reportedly quoted Yogi Berra’s famous line, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over,” which is something that’s only said when it really is over.