In early April, the Texas Senator looked like he was ascendant: The dump Trump PACs were reenergized, and donors started looking at him with a friendlier eye.
But then Cruz lost the New York primary, and seems to have finished behind John Kasich in most of the Acela states tonight. Around 8:45pm Tuesday, the Associated Press was predicting that Cruz had finished third behind both Trump and Kasich in Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island.
Indiana was supposed to be his next best hope, but the terrain there still looks dicey. Kasich has backtracked on his promise to cede his supporters to Cruz. Even if he did fork over all his supporters to the Texas senator, Cruz might have a hard time catching up to Trump. And even if he did win Indiana, its importance has diminished coming after a sweep of six states by Trump.
Without a resounding win or two in the next two months, Cruz will arrive in Cleveland without a convincing argument for why the delegates should risk inciting riots by throwing their support behind him.