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Which Game of Thrones characters will die in episode three?

(Here be spoilers.) If the first two episodes of the sixth season of Game of Thrones are any indication, showrunners David Benioff and D.B. Weiss feel liberated now that they’ve finally exhausted nearly all of George R.R. Martin’s source material. While the last two seasons of the show resembled the last two books in that they were bogged down with convoluted storylines that would likely play no role in the endgame, the first two episodes of this season have ruthlessly and efficiently culled the cast. Game of Thrones is moving again, and moving can only mean one thing: characters are dying left and right.

As we did last week, we’ll predict who will die in the next episode of the show. But before we do, let’s remember the fallen.

Last week’s casualties, in order of how good they were as characters: Baby Bolton, Balon “Baelon” Greyjoy, Roose Bolton, “Fat Walda” Frey, Night’s Watch guy who gets slammed against the wall by giant, misogynist troll who gets smushed by Qyburn’s Monster.

Who will die next, in order of how likely it is that they will die:

1. Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark (and everyone else at the Tower of Joy except Ned Stark, and maybe Howland Reed): OK, I’m cheating here a bit. We know we’re getting the Tower of Joy next week, so we’re probably going to get all of these people dying, unless the show decides to stretch it out for a couple of episodes.

2. Lancel Lannister: Lancel made the list last week and didn’t die, but the battle between the Lannisters and the High Sparrow is going to heat up next week. And while the High Sparrow is high on the list of Season 6 deaths, this isn’t his week—if it’s anyone’s, it’s Lancel’s.

3. Melisandre: Also was on the list last week, but I’m not sure where she has to go from here, especially with Jon and Davos presumably departing soon.

4. Rickon Stark: I don’t think this will be Rickon’s week to die, but, as with the High Sparrow, I fear that death is coming for our precious little boy. If not this week, then by the end of Season 6.