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Which Game of Thrones characters will die in Episode 4?

Giphy/HBO

(Spoilers.)

Even by Game of Thrones’s standards, this has been a bloody start to the season. Benioff and Weiss are using exposition as an excuse to kill off as many characters as they can. After so much death, it’s possible that we’ll see a break in the action—I would normally bet on it, if this episode weren’t called “The Book of the Stranger,” a reference to the Faith of the Seven’s God of Death.

But before we predict who will die next, we must remember the fallen.

Last week’s casualties, in order of how good they were as characters: Shaggydog (internet people really want this one to not be real, but let’s face it folks, Shaggy is dead and Smalljon isn’t a pro-Stark secret agent, he’s a big jerk), Ser Arthur Dayne, Alliser Thorne, Bowen Marsh, Othell Yarwyck, Gerold Hightower, Olly.

Who will die next, in order of how likely it is that they will die:

1. Smallfolk: Am I cheating? Yes, I am cheating. But the smallfolk—in Vaes Dothrak and Mereen and King’s Landing—and random grunt warrior/Faith Militant/Unsullied/Sons of Harpy/Dothraki dudes are probably going to get it this week in the form of Jorah and Daario on Mission: Kill to escape the friendzone/dragonfire/unrest.

2. Osha: I think that there’s no chance that Rickon makes it out of this season alive, but he’s going to hang around for another couple of episodes. Osha will probably die at the same time, but her spot at number two is mostly wishful thinking—I hope that the writers have learned that we don’t need another season-long example of Ramsay’s cruelty and that Osha is quickly dispatched to avoid that. (RIP Shaggy though.)

3. Lancel Lannister: Lancel has been on this goddamn list every week. I am stubborn about this one. He’s going to die.

4. Daario Naharis: Khal Moro has got to go, so Khaleesi can get her groove back, but I think he’ll probably hang around for at least two more episodes. Jorah Mormont is also doomed to die—his greyscale all but guarantees my man is going to die saving the woman he loves—but this doomed rescue mission seems like a waste of a good death.