With a 51-49 Senate vote for cloture, Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination has cleared the penultimate hurdle before the final vote, which could come as early as Saturday. The vote was along party lines with two exceptions: Alaska Republican Lisa Murkowski voted no and West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin voted yes.
The narrowness of the victory points to an extremely close final vote. There are only four real uncertain votes: Murkowski, Manchin, Arizona Republican Jeff Flake and Maine Republican Susan Collins. Having voted no on cloture, Murkowski is unlikely to vote yes on the final vote, although anything is still possible. Kavanaugh would need to win three out of the four of this group.
What’s notable is that the situation remains in flux so close to the final vote. The murkiness was captured by conflicting analysis on Twitter:
I asked manchin if he’ll be a yes on confirmation too, he says he has a statement coming
— Jim Newell (@jim_newell) October 5, 2018
If Democrat Manchin votes yes in the final vote, Murkowski (a no on this procedural vote) and Collins could both vote no and Kavanaugh would still be confirmed.
— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) October 5, 2018
Joe Manchin declines to tell reporters whether his “yes” vote to advance Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation means he will support the judge in tomorrow’s final tally.
— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) October 5, 2018
I can't imagine Manchin being the deciding vote in the final vote, but why even knows anymore https://t.co/ZEzkKghTMg
— Parker Molloy (@ParkerMolloy) October 5, 2018
The only real issue left is whether Collins is willing to be the John McCain vote...because it doesn't look like Flake will join. This whole saga has been Collins trying to avoid being the deciding vote either way...and yet still ended up being there.
— Rachel Joy Larris (@RachelLarris) October 5, 2018
Collins can vote yes on cloture, then, if Kavanaugh goes down this morning, claim she WOULD'VE voted no on confirmation; or, if Kavanaugh clears cloture, announce she will reluctantly join her colleagues voting to confirm. https://t.co/ktCLzoYA55
— Brian Beutler (@brianbeutler) October 5, 2018