This is a lightly edited transcript of the June 14 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack.
Perry Bacon: This is Right Now on The New Republic, and I’m the host, Perry Bacon. Our guests today are two of my favorite political scientists. Julia Azari is a professor at Marquette University. Seth Masket is at the University of Denver. They’re both experts on political parties and how political parties work. And so I want to talk to them about what’s happening in the Democratic Party right now. So Julia and Seth, welcome.
Seth Masket: Thank you.
Bacon: So what I want to talk about is—Seth lives in Colorado, so he experienced the unseating of an incumbent House member just recently here, and some primaries that were unexpected, in that both the incumbent senators did fairly poorly, and Diana DeGette obviously lost. And we had the New York races where the three Zohran-endorsed candidates won.
And you’ve had some other races around the country where the more left-wing, progressive, socialist—pick your term here—candidates are winning. We’re all looking at Michigan, where that Senate race is closer than I would have guessed a couple years ago, let’s say.
So let’s jump into the factors here. I’m going to ask you about four or five different things that might be going on, and ask you if they’re a big factor, a medium factor, or not a factor at all, or not really that important to what the story is.
So I’ll start with ideology. Is the average Democratic voter becoming more progressive, more left-wing? Particularly on issues of Israel, Palestine, and on maybe issues of billionaires and wealth in politics—which are the two issues where I perceive some change in terms of ideology among Democratic voters. But I’m just curious, when you look at these primary results, do you think it’s about the ideology of Democratic voters moving left? And I’ll start with Seth.
Masket: It’s something I’ve been thinking about a lot. Generally, I don’t want to overstate the ideological nature of the American electorate, which is usually not huge, but there is something motivating this. And I have this impression that it’s not necessarily that a lot more people are becoming socialist, but rather that fewer people are afraid of socialism.
A lot of the current political system was designed by people who grew up during the Cold War and associate socialism with the Soviet Union and with the fear of war and military expansion and repression. And the Cold War’s been over for almost forty years. And so this newer generation coming into politics, they don’t have those associations. They don’t have those fears. They’re more open to the idea that this could solve some pretty overt economic problems we’re having right now, and they just find the whole concept less toxic.
Bacon: Julia?
Julia Azari: Yeah. So I think all that’s generally right. I think there’s two things I would maybe add there about ideology. I forgot what our scale is for—
Bacon: So the scale is: is it a big factor, a medium factor, or not really a factor at all? So it’s a three-point scale. And we’ll press Seth on an answer afterward, but I didn’t get his. But anyway, what were you saying, Julia?
Azari: I think put it to high, medium.
Bacon: Yeah, OK. It’s a three-point scale. High, medium, low.
Azari: Yeah. I’ll give it like a two and a half. Sorry, this is what happens with political scientists. But OK, so two things.
One is the socialist label. So I think that’s right, that the label’s not as toxic among people who were born after the Cold War ended. But also, what’s interesting to me is that what the label indicated in past political conversations was, this person wants a huge government takeover—and you know what it actually is, right? The government and the people own the means of production.
That’s not actually the agenda, as I understand it. For the Democratic socialists, the actual agenda sounds much more like some combination of the New Deal Democratic Party in the ‘40s and your average Labor Party in Europe. It’s not really radical reimagining of the structure of the economy. It’s just more social supports, basically. So I think that’s part of the story.
The other piece—I think when you lay it out the way you’ve laid it out, the socialism, the economic agenda, the millionaires and billionaires, the Gaza issue—it’s a new way of thinking about how to assemble a Democratic coalition. So it’s not overestimating the overall ideology of the American electorate, and that everybody understands every issue and understands how they bundle together, but that there may be pockets of the population for whom these issues are very important.
And I think that’s how to understand the Gaza issue. Most people in the US are not paying attention to foreign policy and don’t prioritize those issues. But for a small subset of people, they’re really looking for a politician to address concerns that they’ve had for a long time and haven’t seen in the electorate.
And so this is entrepreneurship of mobilizing a new coalition in a new way, and bringing them into conversation with people who are joining the electorate through age—what do you call it—cohort replacement. I think that’s the story. So I think if we understand it as different pieces, as opposed to one overarching ideology, that gives us more purchase.
Bacon: So to pin you down, is it a big factor, a medium factor, or a small factor, the ideology part? Either one of you can answer.
Masket: Sorry. I had high medium.
Bacon: You said high medium. OK. What did you say, Julia?
Azari: I think I also said two and a half, but I’m uncomfortable with the word ideology.
Bacon: OK. All right. High medium, I like that. OK.
Second factor would be what I’m going to call frustration with the Democratic Party, the Democratic establishment—a term I don’t always love. But anyway, a general sense that the Democratic Party screwed up by running Biden in 2024 when he was too old, and then did not fight enough against Trump early last year, had to be pushed to resist and didn’t do enough. The votes for various Trump Cabinet members that various senators voted for. That kind of frustration with the DC leadership, Congress overall. Is that a high factor? Talk about that, and then do the scale again—Julia, this time.
Azari: OK. So I guess, like you, I’m really skeptical of the establishment term, and I have a really unsatisfying non-answer, because I think it’s omnipresent, and I think it’s usually framed backwards. Whoever is doing well is now the anti-establishment candidate. I’m thinking back to 2008 and Barack Obama.
I do think that frustration is probably real among people who are highly engaged, and potentially the people that are voting in these primaries—especially the frustration with the procedure in 2024. And Seth and I have done some actual survey work on this, and I asked open-ended questions, and people definitely brought that up, and also the age factor and the gerontocracy.
Bacon: Brought up what, exactly?
Azari: Specifically, they brought up the procedure, or lack of one, in 2024.
Bacon: The lack of procedure to do what?
Azari: To nominate Kamala Harris.
Bacon: OK. So the picking of Harris without a vote of any kind. Without a formal—OK.
Azari: Yeah. And I think this also goes back to work in political psychology about losing. I think there’s a sense that the Democratic establishment is synonymous with losing, and people will do all sorts of things in their mind to avoid that feeling.
So in one way, it’s really important, but in another way, I don’t know that it distinguishes it from other types of developments that we’ve seen in the past. Does that make sense? So it’s either a one or a three, not a two. You’re never inviting me on again.
Bacon: Seth, go ahead.
Masket: Yeah. I’m going to give this a high importance. And in some ways this is bigger than ideology, as far as I could tell, because it’s more of the symbolism of insider versus outsider.
We saw a lot of this in the recent Colorado Democratic primaries. These perceptions were very big in the first congressional district, where Diana DeGette, a long-term incumbent, loses to Malat Keros, a twenty-nine-year-old challenger. A lot of Keros’s pitch was that, I have a lot of respect for DeGette’s career. She was a leader on abortion issues, but what has she done for us lately? What is she doing to stand up to the administration now? Why isn’t she in the street? Why isn’t she just more visible?
And that’s like a general anger we’ve seen toward folks like Hakeem Jeffries or Chuck Schumer, where it’s not necessarily disagreeing with their policy stances. It’s not disagreeing with the work that they’re actually doing. It’s just, we’re saying they need to be doing it more. They need to be doing it louder, more aggressively.
So we saw some of that. But I’d also add another race in Colorado here. This was the Democratic gubernatorial primary between Michael Bennet and Phil Weiser, which was very much framed as an outsider-versus-establishment story when these were two really establishment candidates.
Bacon: The attorney general is running against a senator to be the governor nominee. So no one’s an outsider, yes.
Masket: Yeah. And somehow that got framed as Michael Bennet was the insider. He had a lot of DC-area support, and Weiser pitched himself as the challenger who was going to shake up the system.
Ideologically, there’s no difference between them. Most policy stances, their demeanor, their backgrounds are not hugely different. But it seemed to matter to a lot of voters going into this.
Bacon: And Bennet had voted for a few Trump nominees, not a ton—but that was something Weiser was able to really focus on, right?
Masket: Yeah.
Bacon: Next factor: the DSA as an organization specifically—not the ideology, but the DSA and its get-out-the-vote operation and so on. And I think that’s a big factor in New York particularly, but I want to let you all talk. In New York it seems like there’s a very organized DSA. So talk about the DSA itself and the role it’s playing. Start with Julia.
Azari: Sure. So I would actually give this a three. I’ve been thinking about this a lot. One race we haven’t talked about is the Wisconsin gubernatorial race, which—the primary’s in a couple weeks. And at different points in time, the Democratic Socialist candidate has been winning. She very well might win. And the main factor for me seems to be there that no one else is organized.
Bacon: Tell people her name, for people who don’t—
Azari: Sorry. Yeah. Francesca Hong is her name. And the other candidates are—pick a Democrat in Wisconsin, and they’ve probably been running. But the lieutenant governor, Sara Rodriguez, and former lieutenant governor and 2022 Senate candidate Mandela Barnes are the leading ones. And both pretty establishment Democrats.
Hong has been running on a pretty straightforward economic democratic socialist platform, and like I said, has been very competitive in the polls. In my urban neighborhood in Milwaukee, she is winning the signage war. Honestly, some people are saying it feels like no one else is running.
So I think that does speak to the DSA as an organization. Not that they’re necessarily doing anything out of the ordinary, just that they’re doing something. And that unlike these other viewpoints in the Democratic Party that are trying to figure out how they position themselves relative to the Trump administration, relative to the legacy of the Biden administration, they’re not very organized, and the DSA is quite organized. So to me, that really seems like a critical factor, is the coordination.
Bacon: The coordination piece. I want to follow up here, because we’ve heard a lot about the DSA in New York, and I read a little bit about the DSA in Denver. And New York and Denver, I think, are perceived to be cities with lots of rich yuppies, for lack of a better way to say that. You’re in Milwaukee, right?
I don’t perceive Milwaukee as being like a DSA... Milwaukee does not have the reputation of a place that would be strong for DSA—and Milwaukee is candidly heavily Black, and not as upper income as Denver or New York, I don’t perceive at least. So is there a real strong DSA in Milwaukee? Because I don’t think I knew that.
Azari: I feel like whatever I say here, someone I know is watching it and they’re going to be mad at me. But there certainly is a well-organized DSA in Milwaukee, and Milwaukee is an interesting place. As you pointed out, it’s heavily Black. It’s also fairly Latino. But it has a long socialist history. And it has a very strong working-class identity. And so I think the DSA in Milwaukee probably looks a little bit different than those places, but actually maybe mobilizes more people who are active in the trades and in unions.
And people are very mobilized around those issues because of the Scott Walker governorship a decade ago. And so this is a Republican governor who really gutted labor protections in Wisconsin, and so that will really mobilize working people. Yeah, it’s a different political tradition, but actually Milwaukee is a very fertile ground for socialist movements.
And I think there is a real sense—if we’re talking about who is feeling the economic impacts of things that have happened, cities that don’t have that upper echelon are certainly feeling it. So that’s some of what’s happening. People really want to see something different, and so Hong’s message has been landing.
Bacon: Seth, DSA. She said it’s a high, as opposed to medium or low. Do you agree? It was interesting. I didn’t expect that.
Masket: So are we coming for the white yuppies in Denver?
Bacon: I did not—I think yuppies are good. It wasn’t an insult. It was more just—Denver and Milwaukee are different. There’s no way around that.
Masket: Yeah, correct. I was going to give this a medium importance, and I agree with what Julia was saying here. And I saw some of that echoed in the Democratic primaries here in Colorado as well, where up until maybe the mid-spring, most people involved in Democratic politics were saying, Look, all the incumbents are going to win these races. They’re way ahead in all the polls. They usually win. They just have easier access to money and everything. No one really expected that much out of these DSA challengers and other left challengers.
And in part, the incumbent advantages in all those polls was almost entirely name recognition. And like Julia said, it seemed to be the DSA folks were the ones doing the actual organization, and everyone else was just kind of coasting.
So yeah, this is a great example of organization. Where I don’t give it a three and give this a two, a medium importance, is that I think this is all downstream of a number of other things going on—of the rising populism on the left, of the anger against incumbents and the establishment that we were talking about in the last question. So I think DSA has been doing some real—they’ve been raising money very well, and they’ve been doing some important candidate recruitment and some important campaign work, but none of that happens without the overall environment.
Bacon: Let me probe one more. For me, it’s: in New York, DSA is a three, and everywhere else, I’m not sure about it. I’m not on the ground. I’ve read enough about New York to think the DSA in New York is a three—very organized, so on. I would’ve said Wisconsin was a one, but I feel maybe I was uninformed about them, and I would’ve said Denver is a two. So do we think the DSA of New York is a unique thing, or what’s your sense of that?
Masket: That sounds right to me. I think it matters a lot that New York City has a popular DSA mayor who is very comfortable weighing into Democratic primaries a lot, and it just doesn’t have that kind of visibility in other states.
Azari: Sorry, the question was where would I weigh it differently—
Bacon: The DSA of New York, a distinct thing from every other DSA.
Azari: I’m sure that’s true. Can I say two short other things? One is, I think you asked about DSA, but my overall point is more about organization on the left in general.
Bacon: Yeah, but there are places—other people have an organization, right?
Azari: Yeah, but there’s also like a national media apparatus. So Francesca Hong, our candidate, went on Hasan Piker, and that was a whole big thing.
Bacon: You bring it up. That was point number four, but go ahead. Finish your point.
Azari: OK. I’m just saying, the organization on the left side of the political spectrum, of doing things like having signage, just having a media apparatus, is coming out of the DSA wing. But I also do want to point out, just as we’re exposing how Wisconsin politics works—like New York, Wisconsin also has a pretty active Working Families Party. So it’s not just DSA. I think we’re using DSA a little bit to stand in for this broader left apparatus, and I’m going to be a stickler about terminology.
Masket: It’s like the word DNC, right? It just means everything.
Bacon: In New York especially, because I think DSA and WFP were competing against each other in New York. But I think other places, in general, they align with each other.
So the fourth factor I wanted to talk about was this media apparatus. I was going to say Hasan Piker, Drop Site News. We can talk about other parts of the media atmosphere, but there is a left media that has emerged. Zeteo, I think is how you pronounce it. I’m trying to think of others that are in that space. But there is a space where the candidates, Abdul El-Sayed, they go on these media platforms, and these people endorse them and so on. Seth, is that a medium factor, a small factor, big factor?
Masket: I have a really hard time assessing this one, honestly, because I’m just not super tuned into that part of left messaging. But I know it’s big. And I know this is in many ways an echo of what we saw on the right over the last few cycles with Joe Rogan and a handful of other YouTubers, bloggers, social media influencers.
My impression is that there’s a lot of younger, pretty left progressive voters who don’t necessarily show up in primary elections, but can be persuaded to by this kind of messaging, by Hasan Piker and other types like him—who is talking about politics in a way that they get, and in a medium that they’ll follow.
And so if they can get incensed by something, they will show up in these primary elections. And so I would give that at least a two, a medium, as far as I can tell. But I have a hard time just knowing how to measure any of this.
Bacon: To give my own view, this is one where I have a one. My only reason I say this is because primary voters tend to be older and more politically mature, and people more politically engaged. So I would be curious how many people in the Colorado Senate primary electorate listen to Hasan Piker. I feel like that number must be extremely low. It’s worth knowing, but that’d be the one where I’d be skeptical. But Julia?
Azari: Yeah, I’ve been trying to piece together this phenomenon for a long time too. And I’m generally pretty skeptical of causal arguments that start with media, because I think it tends to reflect rather than be a causal force. But I think you have to understand everything we’re saying about the left wing of the Democratic Party in the context of it being relative to what the rest of that side of the political spectrum is doing.
And there, where I would give this like a two or maybe even a two and a half, is that it gives these types of candidates a fundraising apparatus outside of the usual channels. Again, this is the Wisconsin example, but I think that’s the other thing—it’s a movement-building piece for the long term. Also, it’s not just you’re reaching voters, it’s you’re raising money.
Bacon: And I said Hasan Piker and Drop Site News. What else is a part of this? Because I’m struggling to maintain the big factor, in part because I only really know of one person. Hasan Piker’s got this outsized reputation now because the media’s covering him up. But I’m not actually sure—if it’s just Hasan Piker, that feels to me like we don’t want to overdo it too much.
Azari: Sure. But I also think you could have—not to be a troll—but you could have said in like 1991, if it’s just Rush Limbaugh...
Bacon: All right, fair enough. That’s good. No, that’s a good answer. Because I’ve been studying Rush Limbaugh my entire life. So is Hasan Piker a modern-day Rush Limbaugh, in a certain sense? Not in terms of politics, but in terms of influence. Is he close to that level, you think?
Azari: I think we’ll see. I think we’ll know in a couple primaries. And a lot of the questions you’re asking will be clear in a few election cycles.
Masket: I was just going to say, I don’t know—I remember the Carter presidency. That’s how I don’t know. But one thing I would say is that one symbol that Hasan Piker and others are becoming a real presence is that incumbents, establishment, are worried about him, and they’re complaining about him. And talking about trying to disempower him. He’s making an impact. It’s just hard to know how much—is this at the level of Rush Limbaugh in 1991?
Bacon: Julia is making me think that—I’ve separated out DSA from WFP from Hasan Piker, but if they’re actually one big organization of left-wing apparatus, then that is maybe the answer to this question, of what we’re talking about here. I should think about them more connected.
But the fifth factor that I’m going to ask—and I have one more after this—is Zohran Mamdani, AOC, and Bernie Sanders. Is this really about there are three individuals with huge outsized followings, and that they have created a political movement almost on their personalities, and that’s what we’re seeing? Because you notice all these candidates want to be endorsed by one of them.
In New York, it was like AOC endorsed the state legislators, and Zohran endorsed the House candidates. Bernie Sanders is endorsing all these people. Is this really a movement about these three people—not Ro Khanna, really these three people, and not Elizabeth Warren? Is it really about these people? Seth, I’ll start with you.
Masket: I would say they’re the most prominent people in this, but this is not just a personal machine or anything like that. I think this is a bigger organization. Until last year, Mamdani would not have been in that mix, obviously. I think we could broadly extend it more to the squad a few years ago. There’s plenty of others involved. These folks are just among the most organized, the most famous, and, in some ways, really the most eloquent.
Bacon: Julia?
Azari: I think that this is a long-standing feature of American politics too—that what we lack in party organizations compared to other countries, we make up for with these figures. Seth brought up remembering the Carter administration. So I don’t remember this, but in 1844, right, the Democrats are in total mess and don’t know who to nominate for president. And so they go to Andrew Jackson on his deathbed and have him sort it out about who’s an acceptable nominee.
So I think that’s just always been a feature, because of the way our politics work—single-member districts, presidency. It’s this individualist focus, and the media environment has exaggerated that, but it’s always been there.
Bacon: Let me push back a tad and say, it is the case that the left became stronger when one senator from Vermont ran for president twice, and the left movement is looking for one congressman from New York to run for president. I think there is a difference between Ro Khanna running and AOC running. In some ways, you’d rather be endorsed by AOC than by WFP or DSA, right?
Masket: Repeat that?
Bacon: You’d rather be endorsed, if you had a choice, by AOC than by WFP or DSA. That would be my thesis—if I’m literally outside of New York City, where DSA is very strong, but again, of course, AOC is very strong there. So wouldn’t you rather be endorsed by an AOC than DSA or WFP?
Azari: I think the simple answer is yes.
Bacon: And so doesn’t that tell us something about these individuals themselves then?
Masket: I think it tells us that these are the faces of this movement, and people associate with them. People on the left have positive feelings toward these folks more than they do with an organization. So like Julia says, it makes sense to associate it with that. But I think there actually is something of a movement there. If you took AOC and Bernie and Mamdani out of politics and someone else rose up, you can still identify a through line ideologically there, right?
There’s a set of policies—Medicare for All, or reducing or eliminating military funding to Israel, a handful of other things. Conversely, if you think about, is the MAGA movement an organization separate from Donald Trump? I don’t think it is. He’s gone, that’s gone.
Bacon: You guys are kind of hinting at the Ella Baker quote. I don’t want to compare these people exactly, but Ella Baker famously said, “The movement made Martin. Martin didn’t make the movement.” Meaning the idea that the movement is creating stars—there would be stars because there’s a movement, and it’s creating leaders in a certain way.
Azari: Yeah. I would again go back to the comparison with the development of the right—not that these are going to be identical, but I guess I’m also thinking, how would you answer the question, would a candidate in 1988 rather be endorsed by Ronald Reagan or the Christian Coalition, or Pat Robertson or the Christian Coalition, in a Republican race?
Bacon: The answer is Ronald Reagan. But I get the point you’re making. That’s a good way to frame it. That’s exactly right.
Bacon: OK. So the last factor is, are we seeing some kind of just reaction to Donald Trump? Is it that Donald Trump is so radical, and DOGE, and having ICE invade cities and having ICE kill people—are we seeing some kind of reaction where the Republicans have gone so far to the right that’s creating a left, in the sense that if he can do Project 2025 and destroy the government, why can’t we do socialism?
Is that what’s going on here, a really big reaction to Trump? Versus in 2017, 2018, it was more like, let’s double down on normal, let’s elect Joe Biden. And now it’s, let’s elect Zohran Mamdani, AOC should run for president. Is that what we’re seeing, a reaction to Donald Trump? Julia?
Azari: I think everything is a reaction to Donald Trump. It’s hard to downplay the significance. And I think what you’re talking about there is just a broadening of the general political spectrum. But I actually think if we’re telling an organizational story, this is a reaction to the financial crash of 2008. And that’s where this movement builds out of. And if we’re talking about Sanders, that’s really where he’s coming from in 2016. He’s not reacting to Donald Trump. So that’s my take. I give that like a one point five, maybe.
Bacon: OK. Seth?
Masket: I’m going to place this with higher importance than that, just because, like Julia says, it’s in the background of everything. I think for a lot on the left—and I hear this in a lot of conversations with people—that the second Trump administration has been a lot more consequential than expected. It’s been a lot more jarring for people. And related to that is a sense that a lot of the Democratic establishment, Democratic incumbents, aren’t taking those threats as seriously as they should be.
That they’re not meeting the moment, they’re not meeting the aggression of the Trump administration. And so I hear from a lot of more progressive voters like, We need to put in someone who will fight back as hard, and who, if they’re going to do a violation of some norm, then we should do a violation of some norm. For good or bad, I think that’s created a big wellspring of energy there.
Bacon: Let me finish with two questions. The first is, are there any factors that I haven’t named that are really obvious when you look at what’s happening, why these socialist candidates are winning, why there’s a progressive surge? Anything you all can think of that is really important that I didn’t ask?
Seth Masket: I have a thought on that. We’ve touched on Israel and Gaza as an issue. In some ways, I’m finding it surprisingly central to a lot of these left candidates—that they bring it up as one of the main things they want to work on when they’re in government, and one of the main things that’s motivating them and their supporters.
I think part of that is downstream from the way this issue was handled in 2023, 2024, and 2025, where for the most part, the mainstreams of both parties remained very supportive of Israel—at least for a while. Democrats have been recently moving away from that.
But for a while, if you were critical of Israel, and you were looking for someone to champion that view, you weren’t finding it in either party. And if you wanted to protest that, suddenly that was the exception to the First Amendment, and you couldn’t protest that on campuses. And so I think that created a lot of frustration for people focused and motivated by these issues, and I think one of the things you get from that is an insurgency movement within one of the major parties.
Bacon: OK. Anything else, Julia?
Azari: We’ve touched on this, but I would actually really emphasize the economic context. And again, this is maybe coming from a state with less of an upper wealth echelon. But I think that’s really a big part of it—this sense among younger people that purchasing a home will be out of their reach forever, and that general sense. So that’s, I think, hard to underestimate. Or overestimate. I don’t know.
Bacon: For the young, that’s true. I saw some data that Zohran and AOC—my sense is some older voters are also voting for the insurgency as well. And maybe those people also have bad economics, but that’s what I want to see now: I think some older voters who might be financially comfortable also want to see change. It doesn’t mean economics doesn’t matter, but those people might have other factors going on as well.
So the last thing I want to ask is—I think it’s possible a month from now that Haley Stevens has won the Senate primary in Michigan, Mandela Barnes or one of the more traditional candidates has won in Wisconsin, and you have a few wins by the quote-unquote “establishment,” or the most left-wing candidates don’t win. So if those things happen, how does that change the story at all? Do we downplay what we’ve seen? How does that change the story?
Masket: I think in a few months we’ll be trying to assess just how big this moment was. In some ways, I think it’s bigger than 2018. More progressives or DSA people are going to get elected or nominated than happened in 2018. And not as big as the Tea Party of 2010, which really fundamentally took over a party with a lot of new candidates—this is not at that level.
But tied into the fact that Democrats are probably looking at a pretty good election year overall, you’re going to have some new pretty far left people in the House next year that we just don’t see that often. They’ll be somewhat more visible than others. They’ll come in with a lot of energy.
I don’t know how much that actually transforms the congressional party, but those folks, I can imagine, will be pretty outspoken, and they’ll be really trying to, if not necessarily outvote everyone, at least try to steer the agenda.
Bacon: Julia?
Azari: Yeah, I think election narratives kind of take on a life of their own. So it can go a lot of ways, but often, if the elections we’re talking about are primaries, then that can really get overshadowed by whatever happens in the general.
Bacon: Let me narrow it down. My question is, does the narrative we’re talking about get shut down if the normal candidates win in Michigan and Wisconsin? Because I think that’s very possible in the next few weeks. Does the narrative get shut down? Would we be having conversations like this if the candidates in Michigan and Wisconsin who are more progressive lose?
Azari: Maybe. We still have these races where people have overperformed expectations. Sorry, I lost my other thought.
Bacon: So the question was, how do Michigan, Wisconsin—the part I was trying to get at was, does that change the overall story if the big swing states end up acting more normal?
Azari: I think I’m, once again, challenging the premise of the question, because I think that part of the narrative story right now is struggling with the fact that DSA seems to be—or whatever we want to call it, the left wing of the party—seems to be about 30 percent of the Democratic electorate. And that’s Pew data. And we don’t really know how to talk about that kind of persistent division anymore in American politics, as we’re used to parties being so ideologically sorted.
So this question about how big are these policy differences between the two wings, or are they largely stylistic differences, are they focused on a couple issues—that’s a question. And then there’s this question of, what do you do with a significant minority of a party? That’s not a question with an obvious answer.
And I think that if Stevens wins in Michigan, if the month ahead is a good month for more establishment Democrats, then the narrative becomes more, what do we do with—that’s the accurate narrative anyway—what do we do with two contending factions that each have a pretty strong base of support?
Whereas if this is a DSA sweep—I don’t know if that’s going to be accurate, even if August is a really good month for those candidates—but I think that will be more the narrative going into the general, and then whatever happens in the general will shape the longer trajectory.
Bacon: That’s helpful. I guess I hadn’t thought of that. El-Sayed is at 44 percent but loses—that’s obviously not zero, and that’s really high. So in certain ways that means something. That’s an interesting way to put it. That’s helpful.
Anything else you all want to add on this subject? We went on a while, but I think we’ve hit most of the main factors here. I guess I’ve left this thinking we are talking about a party within a party. Is that how you would frame it, Julia? Maybe not quite that far.
Azari: Yeah, I would frame it as an emerging organized faction within the party.
Bacon: And more organized than it was in 2018, and even more organized than it was in 2024. Good. Thank you all. This is Julia Azari and Seth Masket. Tell everybody where they can read more of your work.
Azari: Oh, go ahead.
Masket: I’m working a lot these days on Substack. You can follow my Substack called The Smotus Report. It’s at smotus.substack.com. Smotus is S-M-O-T-U-S—Seth Masket of the United States.
Azari: I am at Good Politics, Bad Politics on Substack with Jonathan Bernstein and David Bernstein, our group blog. I also have—if you were really intrigued by my 1844 comments and you want more history—I have a book called Backlash Presidents, available from Princeton University Press. And I believe Seth has a new book as well.
Bacon: I was going to say, Seth’s agent would like us to hype his book, since he missed the opportunity. Your title, the title of your book, is what again?
Azari: Backlash Presidents. I left my copy in the other room, but yeah—Backlash Presidents.
Bacon: Seth’s is available, it appears. He’s moving his hand.
Masket: Mine is called The Elephants in the Room, new from Cambridge Press. It’s all about the Republicans’ decision to nominate Donald Trump in 2024 specifically, and all the changes that happened within the party to make that seem like a good idea.
Bacon: Thanks, guys, for joining me. Julia, of course I’ll have you back. I knew you would reject the premise of my questions. You’ve always done that. We’ve worked together for five or six years now. But I appreciate your wisdom, and it’s great to see both of you. So take care. Bye-bye.
Masket: Thanks so much, Perry. Bye.
