You can watch this episode of Right Now With Perry Bacon above or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. You can read a transcript here.
What happens if polls are overstating Democratic support, as they have in recent elections? Even if polls are fairly biased against Republicans, Democrats will flip the House, elections expert G. Elliott Morris says in the latest edition of Right Now. Democrats have such a large lead in the U.S. House generic ballot and need to gain control of such a smaller number of seats (three) that a Democratic House majority is virtually guaranteed, he argues. But Republicans have a very realistic chance of holding onto the Senate if the polls are off by a few points, according to Morris. Republican chances are particularly good in Iowa, Kansas, and Texas in such a scenario. Morris also discussed why election forecasts like the ones he does are better at projecting election results than polls alone. And he cautioned against interpreting results only through an ideological lens, arguing for example that example Abdul El-Sayed’s Muslim faith may hurt him with Michigan voters more than the candidate’s support of Medicare-for-all. Morris is the author of the newsletter “Strength in Numbers” and also helps run the elections website FivePlusOne.
