Donald Trump is stewing about elections big time. He raged at Senator Lisa Murkowski for opposing his dumb effort to rig the Alaska Senate race, fumed over imagined voter-fraud in the midterms, and seethed that the right’s huge loss in Brazil was “rigged.” It’s no accident that this comes as early-voting data looks so dubious for the GOP that even some MAGA data analysts seem rattled. One leading MAGA figure admitted she’s refraining from posting early-vote numbers because they’ll hurt the right’s “morale.” Another acknowledged that the electorate looks far too nonwhite for the GOP and urged Republicans to “step it up.” A third fretted that Trump’s campaigning is backfiring. We talked to Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, who closely tracks early voting at his Hopium Chronicles Substack. He discusses the encouraging signs he sees in the data: The electorate is 11 points more Democratic than at this point in 2022, he notes, and the Latino and Black share of the early vote is surging. He details what we can conclude from this and what we can’t, discusses what could still go wrong in the battle for the Senate, and ponders how Democrats should close this out. Listen to this episode here.
PODCAST
Angry Trump Unravels as Brutal New Early-Voting Data Rattles Even MAGA
As some MAGA data analysts panic about the early vote, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg parses what we can learn from them—and ponders what could still go wrong.
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