We haven't had any hot poll action in awhile. So how about this: More than one-third of those asked by the Los Angeles Times said they were "much less likely" to look favorably on John McCain because of his support for the troop increase in Iraq. That includes 43 percent of all independents. Sure, sure, the usual line is that McCain is backing the "surge" on principle and doesn't care about poll numbers. Still, this seems rather striking.
Update: Josh Marshall says McCain's "going nowhere in the 2008 presidential race." With all the usual weaselly caveats (it's still early, blah blah), that sounds quite plausible.