Commenter virginiacentrist makes a great point in response to that Romney post I just did:

One thing you don't cover, though, is the SHOCK value of Romney's Iowa win (this is very important). While the media expects it, the VOTERS do not. Poll after poll has been reported on the news, with Rudy as the front runner nationally. When I talk to Republicans casually about the GE, they talk about Rudy as the nominee. I think it would send a huge shock into the system if Romney won in both Iowa and NH, despite the fact that the media expects it.

I think that's exactly right. Every time I have a conversation with a non-political junkie about who the respective nominees will be, and I tell them I think it'll be Romney on the GOP side, their eyes bug out and their voice takes on a tone of incredulity. Romney is still an extremely obscure figure among non-junkies. He'll be the darling of the popular media after winning Iowa and New Hampshire.

--Noam Scheiber