A just-released Washington Post/ABC poll shows relevant gains for Obama in Iowa -- he's now running even with Hillary among women, and his support among those older than 45 has increased 8 points since July (this matters because Iowa caucus-goers are notoriously geezerly). Sampling for the poll started November 14 and went through yesterday, November 18 -- the day after the Novak flap exploded. Maybe it's too early for any fallout from that to really have registered. On the other hand, two days of polling overlapped with the Novak story, which dominated weekend campaign buzz and made it into the local Iowa news -- all that attention didn't redound too badly to Obama in Iowa.

I notice Bill Richardson still clocks in at 11 percent in this poll. I'm betting at least half of that support collapses by the time of the primary, thanks to his somewhat weird debate performances and alarming Resume Awesomeness / Stump Competence gap. In January, to whom do November's Richardson supporters turn?

--Eve Fairbanks