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Why Is This So Close?

Why isn’t this the Obama crush that everybody predicted? The Obama spin is that younger voters show up later and will be counted later. But I have a few very preliminary thoughts. First, I’m not sure that the independent share of the electorate grew today quite as much as the pollsters were modeling. That means results will hinge more on Democratic regulars, where Hillary was always relatively strong. Secondly, I think that Hillary’s tears may have affected things. At the very least, it may have helped build sympathy among Democrats and caused them to return to her. Thirdly, Bill Clinton made a fairly persuasive argument yesterday: That it’s the duty of New Hampshire voters to keep this race alive so that voters can take a longer, harder look at Obama. It was a good process argument. Like I said, these are very provisional thoughts and we don't know how things will shake out tonight.

--Frank Foer