One thought: if the tears do turn out to have mattered--and I have no idea how we'd ever prove it--how much blame/credit does John Edwards deserve? The guy came out and kicked hillary in the teeth for her show of emotion--going on at length about how the presidency's a tough job, how you have to be tough to do it, etc. It wouldn't shock me if that didn't go over very well, particularly among women. (And exit polls show a big Hillary advatange there.)