Half-baked New Hampshire theories abound! Beyond the women up in arms, I'll throw in with Frank's Iowans-didn't-want-to-be-weenies theory: At the caucus I live-blogged in Eldridge, Iowa, some caucusgoers switched from Clinton to Obama mid-caucus (there were almost no other exchanges between top-tiers). It just felt depressing to be sitting in the Clinton bloc there. Geezerly; morose once they realized their woman wasn't having a blowout. You don't have to look at your fellow travelers (and feel like whoa ... you're getting old) inside a voting booth.

Next up: Nevada. The final proof whether or not this race is going to be defined by total skittishness and flipped expectations will come tomorrow, when the huge culinary union in Las Vegas endorses. They're slated to go Obama, in part because they wanted to endorse the nominee and thought it was sewn up. They'll probably stick with Barack, but stay tuned ...

-- Eve Fairbanks