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A New Poll And A Clarification

With yet another Florida poll showing Romney surging there (he leads McCain 30-26 in this one), I think it's worth clarifying a point I made when Fred Thompson dropped out a couple days ago. At the time, I said Thompson's departure could help McCain, since he'd be the most likely recipient of a Thompson endorsement. I should have said Thompson's departure would help McCain only if it produced an endorsement. As a couple commenters pointed out, Thompson's support generally came from the kinds of conservatives (and conservative evangelicals) who favored Huckabee and Romney. And so those would be the people you'd expect to benefit if Thompson stayed neutral.

At the time I thought Huckabee would be the bigger beneficiary, since Thompson had put such a big dent in his South Carolina vote total. But, based on these recent polls, it looks like it's Romney who may be benefiting, to the extent anyone is.

--Noam Scheiber