Stray thought: As the Obama campaign notes in this slick new pre-Feb 5 PowerPoint-style presentation, Obama has now outperformed polling in three of the four primary/caucus votes. With the Clinton campaign talking up Florida, they'd better be confident Obama won't deliver a surprisingly strong showing.

Granted, the latest RCP average puts Hillary up by 20 points. And her aides seem confident that the high volume of early voting will provide a cushion against the recent twin blows of South Carolina and the Kennedy endorsement.

But expectations will pretty high for Hillary--and the media is more likely to focus on Florida if she underperforms, rather than the other way around.

As one friend in politics who supported Hillary for months until he defected in disgust last week emails:

What if Obama supporters are so incensed at her maneuvers that they turn out big? What if Gainesville, Tallahassee, and the African American neighborhoods of Tampa, Jacksonville, and Miami turn out? If Obama is within 10-15% of her shouldn't his campaign spin it using Clinton-rules?

I'd enjoy the irony if it was Florida that ends up putting one more nail in the Clinton coffin.

 --Michael Crowley