Says AP. (But it's damn close.)

The exit polls have been consistently wrong tonight (Massachusetts, for instance, is turning into a rout, which if it holds up undermines the Obama spin about how much ground he closed there, and is somewhat of a blow to Teddy). That said, people in the know suggest that Hillary is likely to carry California. Update: MSNBC says she's won it.

I find myself blogging a fair bit about state wins and expectations tonight, and I apologize if I've gotten sucked too far into these games. If Obama ties or beats Hillary in delegates, or the overall state count, then he will have had a good night and, as I noted below, likely has a good stretch just ahead of him.

But it did feel for a couple days like Obama had a chance to inflict major, perhaps catastrophic damage on Hillary tonight--mainly through symbolic popular vote wins in key states like Missouri. And it just doesn't look like that has happened tonight. 

Update: Did AP jump the gun?

--Michael Crowley