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California--initial Thoughts On The Exit Poll

The CNN exit poll has Hillary winning California by about 5 points, 51-46. If that number holds--and the exits are correct--Hillary owes that victory almost entirely to Latino voters. Big time. (Do we have an award for John Judis?)

The exits have Hillary winning Latino voters by a  63-33 margin, almost doubling up Obama. Perhaps more surprisingly, the exits calculate that Latinos will make up 29% of the Democratic electorate. That's more than a FIFTY PERCENT increase over their recent primary participation rate--the 2006 primary electorate was about 18% Latino. And the African-American percentage of the Democratic electorate has fallen almost in half, from 8% in 2006 to 5% today.

Personally, I don't believe those numbers...yet. And that same CNN exit poll has Hillary winning the Bay Area by 55-42--which seems even more off. The LA Times exit poll should help sort this out, but I don't see it up yet.

(And of course, the real numbers will shape the exit cross-tabs in retrospect. But the Secretary of State's website seems even slower than normal in getting results out. So much for my shout-out to government efficiency.)

--Josh Benson