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How To Tell How Serious Hillary's Money Problems Were

Speaking of Maine, one way to gauge how serious Hillary's money problems were prior to February 5 is by looking at the result there. On the one hand, the state's demographics give her some pretty big advantages. On the other, it's a caucus state, which means winning probably requires more than a trivial amount of organization. 

I suspect the Obama people are pretty well organized there. If Hillary loses or just ekes out a win, it suggests she didn't have the money to build an organization to rival his over the last month or so. If she wins comfortably, it's an indication she wasn't quite as strapped as some of those reports suggested this week.

P.S. There are other factors that could tip the balance in Maine, of course. For example, if the weather is lousy there tomorrow--and the current forecast calls for snow--it could depress turnout, which would favor the candidate with a more intense following and a better organization. (I'd guess that's Obama, even if Hillary has allocated resources to Maine...)

--Noam Scheiber