An incredibly thorough, district-by-district, demographic-based analysis (by a judicious-seeming Obama supporter) finds that even a 5-point Hillary win in the statewide vote could leave Obama with a slight delegate advantage (thanks in part to Texas's screwy primary-caucus hybrid system). That suggests that if Hillary finds herself needing to overcome a delegate disadvantage on March 4 she'll likely have to win the state by a big margin.

And, yes, this person assumed strong Hispanic support for Hillary.

--Michael Crowley