You are using an outdated browser.
Please upgrade your browser
and improve your visit to our site.

When It Rains

Yesterday I suggested that Hillary Clinton may understand she won't finish the primaries with a lead in delegates, but is hoping an overall popular-vote lead will persuade superdelegates to support her (or at least justify supporting her). As I said, some old Bush v. Gore arguments about the will of the people would come in quite handy. But after Obama's wide margins last night, however, that scenario is fading. Check out these numbers from today's morning email by Chuck Todd of NBC's First Read:

                   Total Vote        %
Obama         9,373,334       50%
Clinton          8,674,779      46%
Others             726,095       4%     

With Florida and Michigan
                   Total Vote          %
Obama         9,942,375         47%
Clinton          9,860,138        47%
Others          1,249,922         6%

So even if Hillary plays the controversial joker in her hand--the disputed votes in Michigan and Florida--she is now the popular vote loser as well as behind in delegates. She can still turn that around with clear wins in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania. But it's far from a sure thing. If Hillary is behind in both delegates and the popular vote, it's hard to imagine substantial numbers of superdelegates going her way. At that point all that's left for her is the nuclear option of trying to force the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations.  

--Michael Crowley