Let's see: After his worst week of the campaign and a solid month of tag-team assaults by John McCain and Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama "only" leads McCain--a candidate who's received no media scrutiny, has yet to be attacked from the left, and is known to Northeasterners primarily as "the guy who pissed Bush off six years ago"--by seven points? Yes, that does seem dire.
Even odds? I'll take that bet, Jamie. Whatever you think you can afford.