Michael Barone crunches state polls and finds ambiguity:

Obama may be a stronger candidate than Clinton in Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa, but he looks far weaker in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, and Missouri. That leaves the Democratic superdelegates with a tough choice to make.

Meanwhile, Insider Advantage has some troubling numbers for Obama in the wake of Wrightmania:

A startling 82% knew about Obama’s speech, and about the controversy surrounding the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Of those who knew about the controversy and the speech, we asked, “Taking all this into account, are you more or less likely to support Obama for president?”

Less likely (52%)

More likely (19%)

About the same (27%)

No opinion (2%)

Bizarrely* Surprisingly, 56 percent of blacks said the speech made them less likely to vote for Obama. Not sure what to make of that. Maybe whereas some whites felt Obama didn't sufficiently distance himself from Wright, many blacks felt he shouldn't have to condemn him at all?

* Too strong 

--Michael Crowley