CBS/NYT: Obama by 12.

USAT/Gallup: Clinton by 7.

Both sampled likely voters. First Read calls the second, which had a larger sample, "disastrous" for Obama and warns of a possible CW flip if Hillary can win both states tomorrow night. Agreed: Losing North Carolina would be a fiasco for Obama. I'll be stunned if it happens, although one new poll there shows him up by just three points, which is really anything-can-happen territory. (Then again, another taken this past weekend shows him up eight; I find that more believable.)

--Michael Crowley