Update: Sorry people, a friend who knows from Intrade says I'm looking at the wrong numbers (although even he wasn't sure what the ones below are.) Obama is actually at a more sensible 91.9. McCain's at 95.2.

The Intrade prediction market has Obama surging to nearly 87 percent. Still sounds low to me! (Slate's Hillary DeathWatch now gives her a 2.5 percent shot at the nomination.)

Also: McCain's at 92.6. Is that other 7.4 percent about his age? Vicki Iseman? Or maybe overamplified conservative resentment/denial is distorting the odds...

--Michael Crowley