In the special election in Mississippi's first congressional district that Eve mentioned, it looks like Democrat Travis W. Childers may well have pulled off a significant upset. With 79 percent of precincts reporting, Childers is taking 51 percent of the vote to 49 percent for Republican Greg Davis (about a 1,750-vote lead for Childers). Most of the votes outstanding are in three counties: Tate, Prentiss, and Itawamba. Tate County is a Davis stronghold in northwest Mississippi, but Prentiss is Childers's home county and should net him a couple thousand votes. Itawamba County is in the northeastern part of the state, where Childers has run very strong tonight (it also went for Childers in the primary election in April). And DeSoto County, Davis's home base in the southern suburbs of Memphis, has nearly finished reporting. It's still a little early to be calling anything, but things look pretty good for Childers at this point.

Suffice it to say this would not be a good sign for the GOP. Losing Denny Hastert's seat in Illinois was bad; losing Louisiana's sixth district to Don Cazayoux was worse. A loss in northern Mississippi (to a candidate who looks like Snidely Whiplash) would be close to catastrophic. This is a district no center-left party has any business winning.

Update: Jonathan Singer at MyDD says the AP has called it for Childers. I really wouldn't want to be John Boehner or Tom Cole tonight.

--Josh Patashnik