I have written repeatedly that polls don't matter at this point, but I can't resist saying something about the most recent presidential poll in Ohio, which has Barack Obama leading by 50 to 39 percent over John McCain.  If anything, it underestimates Obama's current advantage in Ohio.  In the PPP poll, Obama only enjoys a 75 to 21 percent edge among African Americans in the state.  In 2004, exit polls showed John Kerry with an 84 to 16 edge among these voters. And if you do the math, it looks pretty good for Obama.  In 2004, black turnout was 10 percent of the electorate. PPP estimates that African Americans will make up 13 percent of the electorate in Ohio this November. That makes sense given their enthusiasm over Obama.  If Obama wins 90 percent or more of those votes in November, which is very likely, then he would need to win at most 44 percent of the white and very small Latino vote, which is what Kerry got. to carry the state.

--John B. Judis