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Should Mccain Fight Back In Virginia?

Commenter aeromas makes a great point in response to yesterday's item about the difference between Obama's and McCain's presence in states like Virginia, North Carolina, Alaska, and Indiana: While watching Obama devote real resources to these states has to be a little disconerting, it would probably be a bad idea for McCain to respond. As aeromas notes, McCain may lose Virginia, but, in that case, he'll probably have lost Ohio too, in which case the election is over anyway. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which Obama wins Virginia but loses Ohio.

That said, this scenario is probably more likely for Obama than it would be for a Democrat with more traditional appeal, like Hillary. Ohio may be tougher than usual because of Obama's struggles with working class whites; Virginia may be easier than usual because of the additional black voters and young people Obama can draw. But it's still a longshot.

Update: Looks like McCain is ignoring our advice and opening up several field offices in Virginia. Depending on how you look at it, the McCain campaign is either falling for a head fake or it actually believes it could lose Virginia while winning in more traditional battleground states. Either way, mission accompished for Team Obama.

--Noam Scheiber