I really need to start blogging my predictions. I've been telling people for weeks that Rick Davis's firing was inevitable. Chris Orr and I were even planning to start an office betting pool on when he'd be gone. It happened even faster than I thought.

Anway, let me now go on the record to say that another McCain staff shake-up is, if not inevitable, very likely. McCain's staff is just too factionalized to remain stable unless McCain is consistently winning. And Schmidt is a Bush 2004 veteran who lacks the deep emotional ties to the candiate that other McCainiacs have. I predict that at some point, probably just before or just after the convention, there will be a move to "Let McCain be McCain," and new boss Steve Schmidt will be replaced with either John Weaver or Mike Murphy, to try to recreate the magic of the 2000 campaign.

--Jonathan Chait