It's another confusing day at the polls. McCain's position improved in
three states today, but Obama gets good news in a couple of national
numbers.
In Michigan, Public Policy Polling
shows Barack Obama with a 3 point lead; he had led by 9 in PPP's only
prior poll of the state in June. This mirrors the recent Quinnipiac
result which had also shown Obama's lead contracting, although
Rasmussen and EPIC-MRA had shown the race moving toward Obama. Thanks
to investments by the RNC, the McCain team has been winning the air war in Michigan,
and that may be having some effect. At the same time, however, while
Obama's lead is not large, he does hold the lead, and this latest
number may only increase the incentive for McCain to ask Mitt Romney to
join him on the ticket.
McCain has also gained ground in a couple of red states. In Mississippi,
McCain now holds a 12-point lead according to Rasmussen. This is up
from 6 points last month. However, our regression model had not been
convinced that Mississippi was really a single-digit race to begin
with. In Nebraska,
meanwhile, McCain leads by 19 -- up slightly from 16 points last month.
As most readers of this blog probably know, Nebraska awards some of its
electoral votes by congressional district, and Obama has sometimes been
competitive in NE-2 in Omaha, and NE-1 in Lincoln and the eastern part
of the state. Rasmussen does not break its results out by congressional
district, but generally speaking, Obama is going to need to be within
8, 10, maybe 12 points statewide to have a shot at picking up an
electoral vote or two. That is now looking somewhat out of reach for
him.
A pair of national polls, however, offer a different perspective about the momentum in the race. CNN
shows Obama ahead by 7 points -- that is up from 5 points last month
and is the largest lead Obama has held in a CNN poll since February. And
the weekly Economist/YouGov
poll also shows Obama up by 7, up from 3 points last week, and
representing the largest lead he has held in this poll since February
12.
--Nate Silver