There's just one state poll out today. In Oklahoma, the latest Sooner Poll from the Tulsa World and KOTV has John McCain leading Barack Obama by 32 points, 56-24. This poll had last been in the field in late January, then showing McCain with a 28-point lead. There's not much that can be gathered from an Oklahoma poll, which might compete with Utah for the title of the reddest state in the country.  But this may auger poorly for any chance Obama might have to close the gap in states like Kansas, Arkansas, and Texas.

Meanwhile, we have two more days' worth of national tracking poll results to look at, and they continue to show a nearly-tied race, as both Gallup and Rasmussen have Barack Obama ahead by just a single percentage point. Obama's win percentage has ticked downward slightly as a result -- we assign him a 66.1 percent chance of winning the election as of today, as compared with 67.6 percent on Friday.  But our model will need more confirmation from other state and national polling before a larger correction takes place.

--Nate Silver