Sort of the calm before the storm here in Denver, where I'm fired up and ready to go take a nap.
Three firms snuck polls in overnight. Here in Colorado, Suffolk University
has Barack Obama ahead by 5 points. I think a touch of skepticism is
warranted about this poll, simply because Suffolk has never before
polled Colorado, but we certainly have a wide mix of polling in
Colorado, with no fewer than seven firms having released numbers within
the past couple weeks. It all points toward a toss-up, perhaps just
slightly tilting toward Barack Obama.
In Michigan, the EPIC-MRA poll for the Detroit News
has Obama ahead by 2, the same margin he held last month. Obama's win
percentage moved down a bit in Michigan, not necessarily because of
this poll, but because the house effects adjustment that we introduced this morning took a couple of points off the very favorable (+7) poll that he got from Ann Selzer last week.
And in Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch
poll has made its first appearance, showing John McCain ahead 42-41.
The Columbus Dispatch poll, which is conducted by forms mailed out to
registered voters and voluntarily returned by mail, is infamous for
being the lowest-rated poll in our database,
having held the bottom spot since the Nauoo Expositor poll, which was
conducted by carrier pigeon, was officially discontinued after
mistakenly having projected a landslide victory for the Constitutional
Union party in the election of 1860.
--Nate Silver