How popular is Sarah Palin? So popular that she's almost as well regarded as the original baller, Dick Cheney, at the time he was rolled out as the Republican VP nominee in 2000.
There
are three fresh favorability polls on Sarah Palin that were conducted
in whole or on part since her speech to the Republican Convention on
Wednesday. These are from Rasmussen, ABC News and Diageo/Hotline,
respectively. On average between these three polls, Palin is regarded
favorably by 50.3 percent of voters, and unfavorably by 33.0 percent of
voters, for a net score of +17.3:
Palin (2008)
Poll Date Fav Unfav
========================================
Rasmussen 9/4/08 58 37 (+19)
ABC News 9/4/08 50 37 (+13)
Hotline 9/4/08 43 25 (+18)
==========================================
AVERAGE 50.3 33.0 (+17.3)
PollingReport.com
Cheney (2000)
Poll Date Fav Unfav
========================================
NBC/WSJ 8/3/00 46 17 (+29)
Fox 8/10/00 53 17 (+36)
Gallup 8/5/00 44 22 (+22)
Time/CNN 8/??/00 43 18 (+25)
=======================================
AVERAGE 46.5 18.5 (+28.0)
Lieberman (2000)
Poll Date Fav Unfav
========================================
Gallup 8/19/00 55 13 (+42)
Fox 8/10/00 48 10 (+38)
NBC/WSJ 8/??/00 40 11 (+29)
CNN 8/10/00 37 14 (+23)
=========================================
AVERAGE 45.0 12.0 (+33.0)
Edwards (2004)
Poll Date Fav Unfav
========================================
Gallup 8/1/04 59 27 (+22)
CBS 8/1/04 35 18 (+17)
Pew 8/8/04 58 24 (+34)
Newsweek 7/30/04 52 28 (+24)
Time 8/5/04 48 20 (+28)
Annenberg 8/5/04 44 27 (+17)
Fox 8/4/04 51 28 (+23)
=========================================
AVERAGE 49.6 24.6 (+25.0)
Biden (2008)
Poll Date Fav Unfav
========================================
Rasmussen 8/23/08 48 34 (+14)
ABC News 9/4/08 54 30 (+24)
Hotline 9/4/08 42 29 (+13)
==========================================
AVERAGE 48.0 31.0 (+17.0)
Why
have these past VP candidates gotten such strong favorability scores?
It stems from the do-no-harm rule. The conventional wisdom is that a VP
pick is more likely to be a reason to vote against a candidate than a
reason to vote for him, making it unusual to select one who will
trigger the strong reactions that Palin or Biden do.
Palin is probably an exception to that rule in both directions. I think she will
turn out votes for John McCain. The impressive number is not so much
her favorable ratings but the proportion of those that are strong
favorables: 40 percent of Rasmussen's respondents, and 33 percent of
ABC's, said they had a strongly favorable view of Palin. This is
unusual for a VP nominee.
But, Palin will also lose votes for
McCain -- and it's not clear that the losses won't outweigh the gains.
Remember, favorability ratings should play into the strengths of a
politician like Sarah Palin, who is charming and telegenic. But liking
someone is not the same thing as wanting to vote for them; I have a
very favorable view of my friend Eric, but wouldn't want his fingers
anywhere near the nuclear trigger. And on preparedness measures, Palin
polls unusually poorly: by a 42-50 margin (-8), voters in the ABC poll
did not think she has the right experience to serve effectively as
President; Biden's rating is 66-21 (+43).
--Nate Silver