Am I the only one bothered by these Research 2000 polls sponsored by the website, Daily Kos? Every time I have looked at their numbers, they have shown Barack Obama with a greater lead over John McCain than comparable polls show. Today it is 49-43 percent Obama compared to 45-44 percent for Diageo/Hotline and 49-45 percent for Gallup. But when I look at the polls’ internals for whom they are surveying, I find that 13 percent of the respondents are African Americans and 13 percent are Hispanics, which is over a quarter of the sample. In the 2004 presidential exit polls, for instance, the final tally for the national vote was 11 percent African American and 8 percent Hispanic. Maybe, black turnout will be up nationally by a percentage point or two this year, but I would be surprised if the total for both blacks and Hispanics is more than 21 percent. And since that vote tilts strongly pro-Obama, having these groups as 26 percent of your sample would seem to tilt the entire poll toward Obama. Have I misread something?
--John B. Judis