We may now be getting a firmer sense of how the electoral map has changed in the post-convention universe:
Where is Obama polling well? In Virginia and North Carolina, where he gets a couple of very strong numbers today. Both SurveyUSA and the ABC/Post
poll show him with a lead outside of the margin of error in Virginia,
although the latter depends on just which version of the poll you use
(we use the registered voter version with third-party candidates
included; as of next week, we'll switch over to the likely voter
versions). And in North Carolina, Civitas
confirms PPP's finding from yesterday and shows the race as a dead
heat. Rasmussen is more tepid on both states, but still, the trend on
balance is favorable for Obama in this part of the country.
Virginia
is now projecting very slightly ahead of Obama's national trendline,
and would seem to represent a better pickup opportunity for him than
Ohio. I'd assume that the Obama campaign is fairly pleased with that,
because this is a state where they overperformed during the primaries,
where they have Tim Kaine in the governor's mansion, and where the
Republicans don't have quite as much of a ground game, as they are not
used to having to defend the state in Presidential cycles (remember,
John McCain is mostly relying in George W. Bush's scraps from 2004).
So where isn't
Obama polling so well? In Ohio and Pennsylvania, where his numbers
remain sluggish. While Obama would very probably win Pennsylvania if
the election were held today -- he ticked up a couple of points in Rasmussen's numbers
-- it has gradually moved toward Obama's national averages. What that
means is that if the national numbers revert to a tie, Pennsylvania may
be vulnerable, which is why it has moved up and now rates as the most
important tipping point state.
The model's thinking is basically
this: in a very close election, Obama probably won't have too many
problems flipping enough Bush states. Iowa and New Mexico seem to be
absolutely in the bag for him. And somewhere -- maybe Colorado, maybe
Virginia, or, somewhat less likely, Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Nevada or
North Carolina -- he'll pick up that last state he needs to get him to
269 or 270 electoral votes. We don't know exactly
which one of these states he'll flip, but he'd have to have a fairly
bad run of luck to come up short in all of them, particularly as they
are pretty well diversified across the demographic spectrum. But all of
this could be for naught if he blows Pennsylvania or Michigan. Michigan
seems to be moving in his direction, whereas Pennsylvania is going the
opposite way.
(Why are the states moving in opposite directions?
Michigan has notably higher unemployment than Pennsylvania -- meaning
that Obama's newfound economic populism may have better resonance there
-- whereas Pennsylvania has a lot of pro-life moderate Cathloics, a
group with whom Sarah Palin probably performs well).
Obama
doesn't appear to have any such problems in Minnesota and Wisconsin,
each of which gave him a good poll today, and which probably represent
big teases for McCain. But he does have trouble in New Hampshire, where
the University of New Hampshire
gives McCain a 2-point lead. This was a weird little poll -- it was in
the field for a week and there are different versions floating around
of its numbers -- but UNH has a strong track record, and with little
other polling to look at in the Granite State, it needs to be taken
seriously.
--Nate Silver