When
the Democrat is polling even with the Republican in states like North
Carolina, and polling 7-8 points ahead of them in a state like
Pennsylvania, that means the Republican is in a lot of trouble. While
there are isolated results in this batch of polling that seem decent
for John McCain -- he may have closed the gap in Colorado
a bit -- several of these polls have Obama at or near the highest
numbers he's been at all year. Likewise with the national trackers.
If
it's any consolation to McCain, it's not necessarily clear to me that
that the continued movement upward for Barack Obama is a direct result
of Friday night's debate. Obama's polls yesterday (Sunday) weren't much
better than the polls conducted Friday, before the debate had occurred.
On the other hand, Friday's polls were markedly better for Obama than
those from earlier last week. It appears that the principal driving
factor is that, with each shock to the financial markets, John McCain
has continued to dig himself in deeper. Although the debate and Sarah
Palin's PR crisis may be contributing factors, that portends poorly for
him given the news of the day.
--Nate Silver