In his poll roundup yesterday, Nate Silver speculated that "when pollsters like Quinnipiac or CNN or National Journal, which had been friendlier to Obama before (shown him tied or ahead in Ohio), refresh their data, they too will... probably show him several points ahead."

Well, Quinnipiac relased three new polls this morning and, as Nate predicted, they're extremely favorable to Obama, showing him up 8 in Ohio, 8 in Florida, and 15 in Pennsylvania. Again, this is a pollster that has been generally bullish on Obama--though one which Nate's site,, rates as slightly above average in its performance to date. If these numbers are even close to accurate, they spell real trouble for John McCain.

In related news, Nate's FiveThirtyEight partner, Sean Quinn, has a fascinating post on McCain's odd tongue juts during Friday's debate. He quotes retired FBI agent (and poker writer) Joe Navarro:

Tongue-jutting behavior is a gesture used by people who think they have gotten away with something or are “caught” doing something. I have seen this behavior in flea markets both in the United States and in Russia, among street vendors in Lower Manhattan, at poker tables in Las Vegas, and in business meetings.... This behavior has several meanings – depending on specific situations – but is usually associated with one of these: I got caught (taking candy from a drawer), gleeful excitement (look at what I just did, Mom), I got away with something (and I didn’t get caught), I did something foolish, or I am naughty.

You can read the whole thing here. And if FiveThirtyEight isn't already in your regular reading rotation, it really ought to be. 

--Christopher Orr