With the addition of this 51-45 result from a respected polling operation to two other similar numbers in the past few days, the notion of a real Obama lead in Ohio looks clearly like something more than a fluke, and portends a looming disaster for McCain. It's hard to see how McCain could lose Ohio and still win the race, barring a freak scenario where he loses OH but steals PA--a bet I would never take. Things can change fast, but right now we're on the road to Blowoutville. (Update: Rasmussen has a different OH result, with McCain by a point.)

And somehow I suspect an 800-point dip in the Dow isn't turning this trend around anytime soon. 

P.S. Remember how the GOP pulled out Ohio--and the election--in '04 with their fearsome organizing? Well,

Thirty-seven percent of Ohio's registered voters say they've been personally contacted by the Obama campaign. That beats the 27 percent who've heard from McCain, and also surpasses the level of contacts by both campaigns in 2004, when Ohio was decisive. 

--Michael Crowley