An Orlando Sentinel/Mason-Dixon poll has Obama up 48-46 (within the margin of error) in another state where McCain can't afford to be playing a lot of defense. Some details:

Victory in Florida could be decided in the Tampa Bay area, where the Democrat leads 48 to 44 percent, [pollster Brad] Coker said....

McCain is running ahead in North Florida and Southwest Florida, regions of the state dominated by military families, Republican retirees and Democrats who traditional vote Republican in presidential races.

Obama holds a commanding lead in the Miami area, a Democratic stronghold of Jewish, black and non-Cuban Hispanics.

In the Orlando area, where voters often are as divided as in the Tampa Bay area, Obama leads 51 to 43 percent. Also among poll results, 69 percent of voters said the economy is their top concern.

National security and terrorism ranked a distant second among concerns, with 12 percent of voters calling it their top issue.

Also key will be conservative Republican turnout in base areas, like the panhandle city of Pensacola that Sarh Palin is visiting this afternoon.

--Michael Crowley