Their judgments aren't the end-all and be-all, but Real Clear Politics has just reclassified New Hampshire from "lean Obama" to "solid Obama."

The past two weeks have seen four polls putting Obama up by eight points or more. Previously, the state was looking like a tossup. Remember, McCain won two big primaries there, and Obama dramatically lost one. So this is a pleasant surprise for the Obama camp, I have to think.

In other grim news for McCain, the site's electoral map recently shifted Pennsylvania to "solid Obama," and has moved Georgia from "solid McCain" to "lean McCain." 

(But you should still read Nate Silver, too.)

--Michael Crowley