According to Michael McDonald's terrific website,
there are three states in which early voting has already exceeded its
totals from 2004. These are Georgia, where early voting is already at
180 percent of its 2004 total, Louisiana (169 percent), and North
Carolina (129 percent).
Hmm ... can anybody think of something that those three states have in common?
The
African-American population share is the key determinant of early
voting behavior. In states where there are a lot of black voters, early
voting is way, way up. In states with fewer African-Americans, the
rates of early voting are relatively normal.
This works at the
county level too. In Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland), which about 30
percent black, twice as many people have already voted early as in all
of 2004. In Franklin County (Columbus), which is about 18 percent black
and also has tons of students, early voting is already about 3x its
2004 total.
So when McCain's pollster talks about Obama's black vote being "locked in",
he is at best getting the story half-right. It's true that there aren't
very many African-Americans who are reporting themselves as undecided.
But any polling based on 2004 assumptions about what black turnout will
look like is probably going to miss the mark significantly.
Frankly,
I do think that McCain is the favorite to win a majority of undecideds
(but a majority means like 55-60%, not some ridiculous fraction like
70%).
But I also think that the polls are probably undercounting Obama's decided vote, particularly among African-Americans, and young persons with cellphones.
--Nate Silver