After sharing these factoids with colleagues, I was urged to post them. I resisted, but now I'm caving. I hasten to add that these tidbits may well be misleading--as about 75 percent of election day scutlebutt turns out to be, in my experience. With that preamble, here are two nuggets from ground-level Obama volunteers I trust:

1. Obama campaign workers in Ohio were told on a conference call this afternoon to be prepared for a "recount-close" margin in the state. I take that as a slightly good sign for Obama. He doesn't need Ohio, while McCain absolutely does. It also suggests there really won't be some shocking 5-point Bradley Effect in such places.

2. Some people working at a DC phone bank making calls to Virginia today were asked to start calling Iowa instead. This could mean a lot of things, but one of them may be that Virginia is looking good for Obama, which of course would be terrific news for him. It is a little odd to hear they were redirected to Iowa--a state that looked solid for him despite McCain's insistence otherwise. (This would perhaps explain the mystery of McCain's late trips there, long after IA appeared lost for him.) That said, VA has 13 electoral votes and IA 6, so it's a trade Obama would make.

(And yes, this post adheres to the letter of my earlier tirade against exit polls, but perhaps not entirely the spirit of it....)

--Michael Crowley